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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Vapour Pressure Deficit and Moisture Stress in the CPE Framework: Joint Heat-Drought Conditions as the Strongest Climate-Finance Predictors

Authors: RAMANATHAN S, ARUN;

Vapour Pressure Deficit and Moisture Stress in the CPE Framework: Joint Heat-Drought Conditions as the Strongest Climate-Finance Predictors

Abstract

Paper 7 established heat stress thresholds as the strongest agricultural temperature predictor in the CPEframework. This paper adds moisture stress variables — Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD), precipitation, andevapotranspiration — to the same 12 crop zones, generating 132 new predictors across 7 moisture stresstypes. Across 7,040 tested configurations, 289 signals survive quality filters. Joint heat-and-droughtconditions — dry heat (heat stress AND precipitation <1mm/day) and combined heat+VPD (heat stress ANDVPD above crop threshold) — produce the highest lifts in the entire CPE series. EU Urban Energy dry heat® UNG at 21 days achieves lift 2.02×, surpassing the previous maximum of 1.95×. A sign-flip permutationtest (N=10,000 per signal) confirms all 10 key signals at p£0.002 — seven at p<0.001. Event clusteringanalysis shows the dry heat signal fires in 15 of 25 training years (well-distributed), while combinedheat+VPD and VPD_stress signals concentrate in 8 years, identifying specific drought-heat regime episodes.A structural finding: VPD stress thresholds fire at near-zero frequency in temperate zones but at 1,000+events in tropical zones (Brazil Soy, India Sugar), confirming VPD is a binding constraint only wherechronically hot and dry.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green