
Paper 7 established heat stress thresholds as the strongest agricultural temperature predictor in the CPEframework. This paper adds moisture stress variables — Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD), precipitation, andevapotranspiration — to the same 12 crop zones, generating 132 new predictors across 7 moisture stresstypes. Across 7,040 tested configurations, 289 signals survive quality filters. Joint heat-and-droughtconditions — dry heat (heat stress AND precipitation <1mm/day) and combined heat+VPD (heat stress ANDVPD above crop threshold) — produce the highest lifts in the entire CPE series. EU Urban Energy dry heat® UNG at 21 days achieves lift 2.02×, surpassing the previous maximum of 1.95×. A sign-flip permutationtest (N=10,000 per signal) confirms all 10 key signals at p£0.002 — seven at p<0.001. Event clusteringanalysis shows the dry heat signal fires in 15 of 25 training years (well-distributed), while combinedheat+VPD and VPD_stress signals concentrate in 8 years, identifying specific drought-heat regime episodes.A structural finding: VPD stress thresholds fire at near-zero frequency in temperate zones but at 1,000+events in tropical zones (Brazil Soy, India Sugar), confirming VPD is a binding constraint only wherechronically hot and dry.
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