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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Agricultural Crop-Zone Temperatures in the CPE Framework: Heat Stress Thresholds, Growing Degree Days, and the Reversal of the Paper 6 Sugar Signal

Authors: RAMANATHAN S, ARUN;

Agricultural Crop-Zone Temperatures in the CPE Framework: Heat Stress Thresholds, Growing Degree Days, and the Reversal of the Paper 6 Sugar Signal

Abstract

Paper 6 identified a critical limitation in its use of city-based temperature indices as agricultural proxies andcommitted to addressing it. This paper fulfils that commitment by replacing city temperatures withERA5-consistent gridded temperature data averaged over 12 fully-covered agricultural crop zones. Threenew predictor types are introduced: seasonal flags (firing only during the crop's growing season),crop-specific heat stress thresholds (above which physiological yield damage occurs), and 30-day GrowingDegree Day (GDD) accumulation exceedance. Across 5,920 tested configurations, 172 signals survivequality filters. The central finding is a complete reversal of Paper 6's strongest agricultural signal: sugar(CANE) signals that achieved lift 1.42–1.63× under city-temperature proxies produce zero surviving signalson actual sugar production zone temperatures. Conversely, wheat and corn signals emerge strongly: USGreat Plains heat stress ® wheat (lift 1.60×), Ukraine/Russia wheat heat stress ® gold (lift 1.72×), and USCorn Belt GDD ® wheat (lift 1.49×). Heat stress thresholds are the strongest predictor type (mean lift1.397×, max 1.948×). The strongest signal in the entire CPE series is EU Urban Energy heat stress (>30°C)® UNG at 21 days (lift 1.95×). A sign-flip permutation test (N=10,000 per signal) confirms all 10 pre-specifiedkey signals pass at p£0.001, with nine at p<0.0001 — not a single random permutation produced CPE ashigh as observed.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average