
Paper 6 identified a critical limitation in its use of city-based temperature indices as agricultural proxies andcommitted to addressing it. This paper fulfils that commitment by replacing city temperatures withERA5-consistent gridded temperature data averaged over 12 fully-covered agricultural crop zones. Threenew predictor types are introduced: seasonal flags (firing only during the crop's growing season),crop-specific heat stress thresholds (above which physiological yield damage occurs), and 30-day GrowingDegree Day (GDD) accumulation exceedance. Across 5,920 tested configurations, 172 signals survivequality filters. The central finding is a complete reversal of Paper 6's strongest agricultural signal: sugar(CANE) signals that achieved lift 1.42–1.63× under city-temperature proxies produce zero surviving signalson actual sugar production zone temperatures. Conversely, wheat and corn signals emerge strongly: USGreat Plains heat stress ® wheat (lift 1.60×), Ukraine/Russia wheat heat stress ® gold (lift 1.72×), and USCorn Belt GDD ® wheat (lift 1.49×). Heat stress thresholds are the strongest predictor type (mean lift1.397×, max 1.948×). The strongest signal in the entire CPE series is EU Urban Energy heat stress (>30°C)® UNG at 21 days (lift 1.95×). A sign-flip permutation test (N=10,000 per signal) confirms all 10 pre-specifiedkey signals pass at p£0.001, with nine at p<0.0001 — not a single random permutation produced CPE ashigh as observed.
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