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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Corrected Inference for the CPE Portfolio Tilt Strategy: Newey-West HAC Standard Errors and Robustness Checks

Authors: RAMANATHAN S, ARUN;

Corrected Inference for the CPE Portfolio Tilt Strategy: Newey-West HAC Standard Errors and Robustness Checks

Abstract

Paper 4 of the CPE series reported statistically significant portfolio tilt alpha at 63-day (t=4.07, p<0.001) and126-day (t=5.51, p<0.000001) horizons using a standard one-sample t-test, but flagged overlapping weeklyobservations as a key limitation requiring Newey-West HAC-corrected inference. This research letter closesthat gap. Applying HAC-robust standard errors with both rule-of-thumb (3 lags) and horizon-matched (13/26lags) specifications, the 63-day result survives with HAC t=3.53 (p=0.001) under the rule-of-thumbspecification and HAC t=3.30 (p=0.002) under the horizon-matched specification. The 126-day resultsurvives with HAC t=4.71 (p<0.001) under the rule-of-thumb specification and HAC t=3.60 (p=0.001) underthe horizon-matched specification — the most conservative correction applied. We supplement with fourrobustness checks: block bootstrap with block size equal to the horizon length (p<0.001 at both horizons);subperiod analysis confirming both halves of the evaluation window are independently significant at 63d and126d; non-overlapping observations showing consistent direction but insufficient power at n=3–6; and Wilsonscore confidence intervals for calibration showing the 97.0% bullish hit rate lies above the stated 93.0% CPEeven after Bitcoin ETF concentration adjustment (effective n»36,142). The 21-day horizon shows nosignificant edge under any specification. The conclusion of Paper 4 stands under corrected inference.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average