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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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The God Hypothesis. A Probabilistic Evaluation of a Cumulative Case.

Authors: Bataller, Cristian;

The God Hypothesis. A Probabilistic Evaluation of a Cumulative Case.

Abstract

This work treats the existence of God as a hypothesis and evaluates it through a Bayesian cumulative case, in the tradition of ramified natural theology. It gathers seven independent lines of evidence —the intertextual coherence of Scripture, medically audited cures, near-death experiences, meaningful coincidences, the epidemiological effects of religious practice, cosmological fine-tuning and biological information, and the Otiogenic inference of the Designer— and measures how far each one shifts the probability of the hypothesis, with the best alternative explanation declared at every step. The synthesis shows that, for any reasonable prior, the posterior probability shifts upward, with no sensible combination of weights producing a net downward movement. On that epistemic basis, a layer of decision theory under uncertainty concludes that acting as if the Designer exists is the optimal option even under the most adverse assumption, the one in which its documented benefits were entirely placebo. The work does not claim demonstration; it claims that the logical, the probable, and the beneficial converge in the same direction.

Keywords

philosophy of religion, Bayesian inference, near-death experiences, Otiogenesis, epidemiology of religion, decision theory, cumulative case, Pascal's wager, fine-tuning, natural theology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average