Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ZENODOarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
ZENODO
Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
ZENODO
Report . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Report . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Report . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 3 versions
addClaim

The AI Energy-Demand Forecast Scorecard: A Reproducible Audit of How the Field Forecasts Data-Centre Electricity Demand

Authors: NM AI Research;

The AI Energy-Demand Forecast Scorecard: A Reproducible Audit of How the Field Forecasts Data-Centre Electricity Demand

Abstract

A reproducible audit of how the field forecasts AI and data-centre electricity demand, scoring 11 published forecasts on transparency, internal consistency, revision behaviour, and comparability. It scores forecaster behaviour; it is not itself a forecast, and not a bubble call. Of the 11 forecasts, only 3 are reproducible from public method and data (7 are confirmable at their primary source, and 10 are verified against some credible source), while the single highest figure (BCG, about 1,050 TWh) cannot be verified at all because it is paywalled. The forecasts are expressed in six incompatible formats and disagree by multiples at the US 2030 horizon without sharing a common scope definition; among the revisions that could be documented, all have moved upward. A companion reproduce.py computes the four signals from the shipped dataset, so the headline figures are derived rather than asserted. Version 0.2.1 applies two precision corrections from an external adversarial review (an EPRI revision figure reconciled to the dataset, and the Goldman revision restated as a change in the demand level rather than in percentage points); no finding changed. Independent analysis, not investment advice. Produced with assistance from Claude Opus 4.8, an Anthropic model.

Keywords

transparency, data centre energy, LBNL, data centres, forecast evaluation, AI energy demand, energy forecasting, forecast transparency, IEA, AI electricity demand, AI infrastructure, deflation, electricity forecasting, reproducibility, unit economics

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Related to Research communities