
What will agriculture look like in the year 2030? How will the global food system respond to a growing human population, increased urbanization, shifts in food prices, changing consumption patterns, climate change effects, and competing demands for land? What will happen to those communities that do the bulk of the agricultural work today? Will they remain as farmers or will they seek new opportunities in other industries and sectors? For those who remain in farming, what will their lives be like, and what new skills will they need to be successful? How will all of these factors shape consumers’ relationship with food and with the food system? The Institute for Alternative Futures, mandated by Oxfam America & Oxfam Peru, developed 4 future scenarios for food justice in 2030, based on desk research, local workshops, and interviews. The scenarios are: Progress at the Margins – (expectable) – Peru makes some progress in poverty reduction and food justice, but these efforts are inadequate to address challenges related to climate change and food prices. This scenario is in the “zone of conventional expectation.” A Harvest of Inequity – (challenging) – The gap widens between large-scale agribusinesses, which own ever more land and are able to deploy advanced technologies, and smallholder farmers, who face climate change effects and lack access to these advances. This scenario is in the “zone of growing desperation.” Sustainable Future, Timeless Past – (aspirational) – Facing an increase in social unrest at the local level, policymakers set the goal of establishing an equitable distribution of productive resources between large-scale and small-scale agriculture. This scenario is in the “zone of high aspiration.” The Peruvian Way – (aspirational) – Following a series of environmental crises, Peruvians initiate a national dialogue to chart the country’s future. A series of efforts, dubbed “the Peruvian way,” achieve food justice by combining the best of indigenous techniques with the best of modern technology. This scenario is in the “zone of high aspiration.”
Planning, Food, Futures essay, Food Industry, Agriculture, Foresight
Planning, Food, Futures essay, Food Industry, Agriculture, Foresight
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