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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
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Comparative Analysis of ML Approaches for Chronic Disease Prediction with SHAP Explainability: A Multi-Dataset Benchmark

Authors: Adeel, Muhammad;

Comparative Analysis of ML Approaches for Chronic Disease Prediction with SHAP Explainability: A Multi-Dataset Benchmark

Abstract

Chronic diseases — including cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) — represent the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Early, accurate, and interpretable prediction remains a critical clinical challenge. This study presents a systematic comparative analysis of five machine learning classifiers — Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost, and LightGBM — across three benchmark datasets: the Cleveland Heart Disease dataset, the Pima Indians Diabetes dataset, and the UCI Chronic Kidney Disease dataset. Models are evaluated using Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-Score, and ROC-AUC under a unified preprocessing and evaluation framework. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values are computed for LightGBM to provide clinically interpretable feature contributions. Results demonstrate that ensemble methods — particularly LightGBM and Random Forest — consistently outperform classical approaches. LightGBM achieves ROC-AUC of 0.9556, 0.8243, and 1.0000 on Heart Disease, Diabetes, and CKD respectively. SHAP analysis identifies ca, cp, and thal as dominant cardiac predictors; Glucose and BMI as primary diabetes biomarkers; and hemoglobin and specific gravity as near-perfect CKD discriminators — all consistent with established clinical literature. The high CKD separability (5-fold CV AUC = 0.9996 ± 0.0008) is confirmed as a genuine dataset property rather than overfitting. This work provides a reproducible, open-source benchmark for multi-disease ML prediction with explainability. Keywords: Machine Learning, Chronic Disease Prediction, Explainable AI, SHAP, XGBoost, LightGBM, Healthcare Informatics, Multi-Dataset Benchmark, Tabular Classification

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Keywords

machine learning, chronic disease prediction, SHAP, explainability, LightGBM, XGBoost, healthcare

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average