EMPIRICAL VALIDATION OF THE SEISMIC ENERGY RELEASE RISK ASSESSMENT (SERRA/MEL) THEK Research Institute — Advanced Scientific, Engineering & Technological Think Tank Description This document presents the empirical validation of the Seismic Energy Release Risk Assessment (SERRA/MEL), developed by Marcelo Moncayo Theurer between 1999 and 2000. The central purpose of SERRA is to transfer seismic hazard analysis into the physical energy domain, as the foundation for safer, more precise, and permanently updatable seismic-resistant structural designs. The method uses world seismic databases to produce energy release curves and seismic risk maps, translated through the following chain: Seismic catalog (USGS) → Energy release curves → Equivalent magnitude (MEM) → Attenuation laws → Design acceleration → Seismic-resistant design. As a prospective byproduct, SERRA produces prospective assertions that identify stages of higher seismic activity, regional cyclic behavior, and current seismic hazard at each identified SIGSA (Generalized Seismically Active System). SIGSA Prospective Assertions — ESPOL 2005 SIGSA Expected Magnitude Zone Status Manabí-Esmeraldas Mw 7.7–8.2 Northern coast — Bahía de Caráquez zone ✓ CORROBORATED — Pedernales Mw 7.8, April 16, 2016 Chongón-Colonche Mw 6.5–7.0 Santa Elena Peninsula — 15-75 km from Guayaquil ✓ CORROBORATED — Events 6.0–6.2, 2000–2011 Jambelí Mw 7.5–7.7 Eastern Amazonian zone of Ecuador ✓ CONCORDANT — Events 6.1, 6.8, 7.1 (2005–2010) Guayaquil (near city) ~Mw 6.0 Within 20 km of Guayaquil city ✓ CONCORDANT — USGS 5.5 (2017) near Naranjal Guayaquil (south) Mw 7.2–7.5 Gulf of Guayaquil / Tumbes zone ⏳ ACTIVE/PENDING — Energy curve persistent Subduction Mw 8.3+ Pacific subductive zone ⏳ ACTIVE/PENDING — Potential Ms 8.9 (cf. 1906) Documentary Authenticity File metadata confirms all original documents were created between 2001 and 2006, prior to all seismic events they prospectively identify. ESPOL Final Document: created 02/08/2005 (118 pages, 222 min editing time). Mapa de Potencialidad figure: created 07/21/2005, Author: moncayo. Executive Summary: created 07/14/2006. These metadata constitute independent forensic evidence of chronological priority. Key Advantages of SERRA No external empirical dependencies — data come exclusively from the studied region. Permanently updatable with each new seismic catalog entry. Only method that correlates seismic hazard results with real subsequent seismic activity. Complete design chain: released energy → equivalent magnitude → design acceleration → seismic force. Prospective assertion horizon demonstrated: 11 to 25 years before observed events. Marcelo Moncayo Theurer, MSc CEO & Director of Research — THEK Research Institute Full Professor — Universidad de Guayaquil, Ecuador ORCID: 0000-0002-8456-1571 | solugran@gmail.com CEDIA/SENECYT: https://redi.cedia.edu.ec/document/345876 | DOI: 10.23878/alternativas.v17i3.231