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Stiffness-Field Interpretation of Orbital Stability in Repeating TDEs: Constraints from AT2022dbl

Authors: Cai, Fei;

Stiffness-Field Interpretation of Orbital Stability in Repeating TDEs: Constraints from AT2022dbl

Abstract

This application note applies the stiffness-field framework from Cai Fei Principle v2.0 to the repeating partial tidal disruption event AT2022dbl. Compared with conventional GR-based pTDE simulations allowing ±30 days of epoch scatter, Cai’s Law restricts the third flare’s expected peak within ±5 days around linear orbital extrapolation. The theoretical derivation was finalized in June 2026, after the target observational window in January 2026, avoiding post-hoc fitting bias; the predicted time window is pending future public photometric data for experimental verification, with a prolonged rise timescale of flare as an auxiliary test signature.

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