Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ZENODOarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
ZENODO
Report
Data sources: ZENODO
addClaim

Impact of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Cycles on Regional versus Large-Cap Bank Stock Valuations: An Event Study (2022-2025)

Authors: Xiao, Alan;

Impact of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Cycles on Regional versus Large-Cap Bank Stock Valuations: An Event Study (2022-2025)

Abstract

Background/Objective: The Federal Reserve's 525-basis-point tightening cycle (2022-2023) created a high-velocity stress test for the U.S. banking system. This paper uses an event study approach to investigate the impact of 2022-2025 interest rate decisions on the stock prices of selected regional banks (RF, FITB, KEY, HBAN) compared to large-cap banks (JPM, BAC, WFC, C). Methods: Official Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement dates were utilized as events [1]. Abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) were calculated against the S&P 500 using a market model (CAPM) and a constant-mean return model [2, 3]. The study employed a -120 to -6 day pre-event estimation period and a -5 to +5 day event window [4], with significance verified via t-tests [5]. Results: Banks showed positive ARs on event days due to improved net interest margins [6]. Regional banks demonstrated stronger effects than large-cap banks (+0.82% vs. +0.10% on the announcement day), supporting deposit-franchise theory: regional firms benefit more from rate increases due to higher costs for rate-sensitive liabilities [7]. Conversely, large banks exhibited smaller ARs, likely reflecting higher global funding costs [1]. By Q3 2025, regional bank valuations faced a "fragility discount" amid $337.1 billion in unrealized losses driven by persistent commercial real estate (CRE) concerns. Conclusions: Interest rate shocks transmit unevenly; while tightening generally depresses risk assets [8], banks can be an exception [6]. The 2025 easing cycle lacked perfect symmetry, as persistent CRE risks tempered valuation gains even as the Federal Reserve transitioned to rate cuts.

Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback