
This paper presents the results of satellite-based geospatial monitoring of agroclimatic resources and vegetation condition at the onset of the 2026 growing season in Ukraine. The study utilises open-access remote sensing data from the FAO GIEWS Earth Observation system and NOAA NESDIS STAR platform to assess temperature dynamics, precipitation patterns, soil moisture supply, and vegetation state across three natural zones: Polissia, Forest-Steppe, and Steppe. Long-term temperature analysis reveals a significant warming trend over the past 30 years compared to the 1982–1991 baseline, with growing season temperatures increasing by 2.6 °C in Polissia, 3.2 °C in the Forest-Steppe, and 3.5 °C in the Steppe zone. The winter of 2025–2026 was notably colder than previous years, causing a delay of more than two weeks in the onset of spring vegetation. Precipitation data from FAO GIEWS for the 1979–2023 period indicate a declining trend across all zones, with reductions of approximately 69 mm in Polissia, 63 mm in the Forest-Steppe, and 32 mm in the Steppe relative to long-term averages, accompanied by a seasonal redistribution toward the autumn-winter period. Assessment of the modified Selyaninov Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTC-S), calculated from satellite data, confirms a transition toward more arid conditions in the Forest-Steppe and Steppe zones. Soil moisture reserves in the one-metre layer assessed via SMAP satellite data were close to sufficient levels across all zones at the onset of spring 2026. NDVI-based vegetation monitoring shows a long-term improvement in plant condition, most pronounced in Polissia (+23%) and the Forest-Steppe (+22%) relative to 1982–1991. However, a marked decline in NDVI was recorded in the Steppe zone following the destruction of the Kakhovka reservoir, with reductions of 20–30% in Kherson oblast. Furthermore, delayed spring warming in 2026 resulted in NDVI values 15–25% lower than in the corresponding period of 2025, likely associated with frost damage to winter crops. The authors recommend prioritising soil moisture conservation measures, including minimising pre-sowing tillage operations and careful field-level planning of the sowing campaign, as critical adaptive responses to ongoing climate warming and summer precipitation deficits.
