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Habitability in the Universal Model Framework (UMF): A Falsifiable Cyclic-Stability Filter and a Speculative Coherence Axis of Advancement

Authors: Gericke, Marco;

Habitability in the Universal Model Framework (UMF): A Falsifiable Cyclic-Stability Filter and a Speculative Coherence Axis of Advancement

Abstract

This work proposes a cyclic‑stability extension to exoplanet habitability scoring that addresses a central omission in standard indices such as the Earth Similarity Index and habitable‑zone overlap scores: they measure instantaneous Earth‑likeness, not whether a system can sustain a stable climate over geological time. As the manuscript states, “habitability is a property of trajectories, not of snapshots,” and the framework therefore augments a baseline score with four dynamical factors: long‑term orbital stability, obliquity stabilisation, bounded Milanković‑type climate forcing, and a new multi‑cycle recurrence metric. The core innovation is RSaros, a generalised Saros‑like measure of how closely a system’s orbital, nodal, and apsidal periods nearly synchronise. It is defined through an integer‑relation search that quantifies “how closely a system’s several orbital clocks nearly synchronise,” calibrated to the Earth‑Moon‑Sun Saros. The framework embeds RSaros within a falsifiable model‑comparison pipeline (M0–M3), preregistered hypotheses (H0–H5), and explicit failure conditions to ensure that any claimed predictive value is out‑of‑sample and not an artefact of overfitting. A major extension treats natural satellites as possessing two habitability channels—surface and subsurface—where recurrence acquires direct causal meaning via resonance‑maintained eccentricity and tidal heating. The result is a transparent, testable methodology for assessing long‑term habitability across planetary and satellite systems. This project was developed by Marco Gericke, with structured assistance from a large language model. All scientific concepts and conclusions were generated, verified, and interpreted by the author. Dedicated to Peter Plichta, who envisioned the code before it could be computed.

Keywords

Universal Model Framework (UMF), satellite habitability, milankovic‑climate, resonance‑architecture, exoplanet habitability, orbital dynamics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average