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Market Cycles No. 7 – Arctic Governance: A Long-Term Structural Reading

Authors: BELOT, Jean-Marc;

Market Cycles No. 7 – Arctic Governance: A Long-Term Structural Reading

Abstract

This monograph analyses the Arctic as a macro-regional governance system within long technological waves and civilisational cycles. The study situates the region in the 2026–2040 transition period through structural, geopolitical and geoeconomic analysis rather than short-term market forecasting. It interprets the Arctic not as a remote frontier or a passive consequence of climate change, but as a threshold system structuring access to resources, routes, sovereignty and strategic positioning across the High North. The research framework integrates: • long technological wave theory (Kondratiev-type dynamics) • climate change, environmental constraints and territorial transformation • Arctic sea routes, maritime gateways and emerging logistics corridors • energy systems, critical resources and extraction frontiers • satellite networks, surveillance systems and strategic infrastructure • governance mechanisms, sovereignty claims and international cooperation • geopolitical positioning between North America, Europe and Eurasia The Arctic is examined as a structured threshold space composed of maritime passages, resource basins, technological infrastructures and governance arrangements linking some of the world's most strategic regions. Its systemic role is not hegemonic, but enabling: securing access, organizing circulation, and conditioning the functioning of broader economic and geopolitical systems. The analysis emphasises strategic access, infrastructural resilience, governance capacity and the management of environmental and geopolitical constraints. Rather than presenting a climate narrative or a resource rush scenario, this volume identifies the functional architecture that conditions capital allocation, energy security, logistical organization, technological deployment and geopolitical positioning in the emerging Arctic system. This publication forms part of the broader Market Cycles Research Program, which studies long-term economic transformations across major world regions (South China, Oceanic India, US Sunbelt, North Africa, Southeast Asia, Adriatic–Danube Europe, Arctic Governance). Further information: https://legendsandcycles.com/ Keywords: Long Technological Waves; Kondratiev Cycles; Macro-Regional Economic Systems; Economic Geography; Arctic Governance; Arctic Sea Routes; Northern Sea Route; Strategic Resources; Energy Systems; Critical Infrastructure; Maritime Corridors; Sovereignty; Geoeconomics; Systemic Resilience; Strategic Foresight.

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