Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
ZENODOarrow_drop_down
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
addClaim

Scoping Review of Machine Learning Frameworks for Climate Projection and Adaptation Planning in Senegal

Authors: Diouf, Mamadou;

Scoping Review of Machine Learning Frameworks for Climate Projection and Adaptation Planning in Senegal

Abstract

Machine learning frameworks for climate projection and adaptation planning in Senegal remain underexamined despite the country's acute vulnerability to Sahelian climate variability. This scoping review synthesises the state of the art in computational models applied to Senegalese climate prediction and adaptation planning, focusing on model architecture, data sources, and validation practices. The review follows the PRISMA-ScR framework, analysing 73 peer-reviewed studies published between 2015 and 2025, sourced from IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and Web of Science. Key findings reveal that 68% of studies employ ensemble learning methods—predominantly random forests and gradient boosting—for rainfall and temperature forecasting, yet only 12% incorporate uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference or conformal prediction. A typical model is expressed as $\hat{y}_t = \sum_{i=1}^{n} w_i f_i(\mathbf{x}_t) + \epsilon_t$, where weights $w_i$ are optimised on historical ERA5 reanalysis data (1981–2020). The review identifies a critical gap: no existing framework integrates downscaled CMIP6 projections with local socio-economic adaptation indicators, and reported confidence intervals for prediction errors exceed ±2.5°C for seasonal forecasts. This paper contributes the first systematic mapping of ML frameworks for climate adaptation in Senegal, introducing a taxonomy that categorises models by predictive horizon, input resolution, and adaptation domain. A concrete result is that only 8% of studies validate models against ground-station data from the Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie. The findings imply that future frameworks must embed uncertainty-aware architectures and region-specific validation protocols to support actionable adaptation planning in data-sparse West African contexts.

Keywords

West Africa, machine learning frameworks, scoping review, climate projection, adaptation planning, Sahelian climate, Senegal

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!