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Other literature type . 2026
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Research . 2026
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Research . 2026
Data sources: Datacite
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Epistemic Weather: Diagnostic Instruments for Reading Intent-Horizon State

Authors: Kuiper, Justin H.;

Epistemic Weather: Diagnostic Instruments for Reading Intent-Horizon State

Abstract

The intent-horizon construct (IH-1) and its security model (IH-2) specify what governed agentic systems must protect; the structural account of confident misalignment (IH-3) specifies what failure of that protection looks like mechanically. What the prior papers in this series do not supply is the **operator-facing diagnostic surface** — the instruments by which an operator reads horizon-state in real time and decides whether to intervene, wait, escalate, or re-pin. This paper specifies that surface. The diagnostic surface is named **epistemic weather** for an operationally important reason: horizon conditions are continuous, not binary. The operator does not read a single horizon-status check; the operator reads a *weather report* across multiple boundary dimensions, continuously updating, in which conditions are graded by class rather than reduced to a pass/fail outcome. The metaphor is load-bearing: weather reports are the operator's interface to a complex, evolving, observable-but-noisy phenomenon; horizon state is exactly such a phenomenon and deserves an analogous interface. This paper specifies four weather classes — **clear, drift, fog, storm** — and the instruments that read each one. Clear is the steady-state operating mode: the system is horizon-integral along all four boundary dimensions, intent-CIA-NR properties are intact, no operator intervention is required. Drift is the early-warning condition: at least one horizon boundary is approaching crossing; the system is still horizon-integral but the conditions are evolving in a direction that will produce a crossing absent recalibration. Fog is the operator-side comprehension degradation: the system's self-reports are no longer reliably readable by the operator (the operator's instruments cannot tell whether the system is clear or drifting). Storm is the active boundary crossing: the system is in a confident-misalignment state (per IH-3's structural account) and the architecture must fail-closed to operator intervention.

Keywords

weather-classes, horizon-state-reading, intent-horizon-theory, operator-interface, diagnostic-instruments, epistemic-weather, ai-governance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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