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Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Description Without Prediction: A Methodological Critique of Bitcoin Price Power Law Models

Authors: Faulkner, Paul;

Description Without Prediction: A Methodological Critique of Bitcoin Price Power Law Models

Abstract

This paper identifies nine methodological concerns across two prominent Bitcoin price power law analyses: a widely circulated retail Monte Carlo simulation and Santostasi and Perrenod (2026), “A Mechanistic Derivation of the Bitcoin Price Power Law.” Both analyses demonstrate that Bitcoin’s price history from 2010 to 2026 is well described by a power law with exponent approximately 5.69. Neither establishes that this relationship constitutes a forward-binding structural constraint. The retail variant fails on five grounds: residual stationarity demonstrates historical consistency but not causal necessity; the Monte Carlo boundary condition is circular; the volatility decay narrative is a log-scale coordinate artefact; the halving-cycle regime segmentation is entirely in-sample; and no generative mechanism is provided for the relationship’s expected persistence. The academic variant fails on four additional grounds: the composition identity β = β₁ × β₂ is algebraic necessity, not independent evidence; the epidemic spreading derivation is post-hoc rationalisation fitted to the measured exponent rather than an independent prediction; the Bayesian stability analysis applies a conjugate update to autocorrelated rolling estimates as though they were independent draws, artificially compressing posterior uncertainty by a factor of approximately 5.6; and the paper omits a Granger causality test between price and address count, leaving the direction of causation unestablished. The paper concludes with a five-stage pattern analysis and a diagnostic checklist for identifying when quantitative models have crossed from empirical description into unfalsifiable advocacy.

Keywords

epidemic spreading, power law, Metcalfe's Law, cointegration, Bayesian inference, effective sample size, Bitcoin, out-of-sample validation, model falsifiability, cryptocurrency

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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