This article analyzes the epidemic processes of the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Uzbekistan using the SIRD mathematical model and compares model outputs with real statistical data. The dynamics of infections, recoveries, and deaths for the period from March 15 to April 15, 2020, are examined. Deterministic and stochastic approaches are discussed conceptually, and the SIRD parameters are used to describe the initial growth phase of the epidemic. The results show that mathematical modeling is an effective tool for explaining epidemic processes, forecasting their development, and evaluating the degree of agreement between the model and observed data.