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ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Oil Shocks and The Nigerian Stock Market (1986-2025)

Authors: Yahaya, Onipe Adabenege;

Oil Shocks and The Nigerian Stock Market (1986-2025)

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and Nigerian stock market returns, covering the period from January 1986 to December 2025, using monthly data. Nigeria presents a compelling laboratory for such investigation: as Africa's largest oil producer and a country whose macroeconomic fortunes are inextricably linked to global crude oil markets, understanding how oil price movements transmit to equity markets carries significant implications for investors, policymakers, and regulators. This paper departs from prior studies by constructing a comprehensive analytical framework that controls for twelve macroeconomic and financial variables, namely GDP growth rate, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, market volatility, global risk appetite (VIX), foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows, political risk, policy uncertainty, monetary policy stance, global oil demand, and world stock market returns. Employing an array of time series econometric techniques, including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with Newey-West heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) standard errors, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (GARCH-M), and Non-linear ARDL (NARDL), the study uncovers several novel findings. First, oil price shocks exert statistically significant and asymmetric effects on Nigerian stock returns: positive oil shocks of moderate magnitude generate positive market responses, while oil price crashes and sharp volatility spikes consistently depress market returns. Second, the exchange rate channel emerges as a dominant transmission mechanism, with Naira depreciation amplifying the adverse effects of negative oil shocks. Third, foreign portfolio investment flows and global risk appetite jointly moderate the responsiveness of Nigerian equities to oil market signals. Fourth, political risk and policy uncertainty constitute significant structural impediments that prevent the Nigerian stock market from efficiently pricing oil market information. These findings carry important implications for portfolio managers, the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and fiscal authorities, and they contribute to the nascent literature on oil-equity market nexus in frontier markets.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Oil Shocks, Nigeria, Time Series, Stock Market

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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