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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Latent Divergence: Russia and China Between Tactical Alignment and Structural Incompatibility

Authors: Tymoshenko, Natalia;

Latent Divergence: Russia and China Between Tactical Alignment and Structural Incompatibility

Abstract

This paper is part of the TESPA (Tymoshenko Extended Signal Pattern Analysis) framework, a system-level analytical architecture for organising and evolving knowledge in international studies (see TESPA Core Document, Zenodo, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20024935). <br> <br> Russia-China relations are frequently described as a strategic partnership or an emerging anti-Western bloc. However, such interpretations underestimate the structural differences underlying this alignment. This paper introduces the concept of latent divergence, arguing that Russia and China pursue fundamentally different models of global order transformation. Russia increasingly frames the existing system of globalization as illegitimate and seeks to undermine it, whereas China aims to preserve globalization while reshaping its rules to reflect its own normative and economic preferences. Using a signal-pattern analysis (SPA) framework, the paper identifies recurring behavioral patterns across diplomatic, economic, and crisis contexts. The case of the Iran crisis demonstrates how these differences manifest in practice: Russia adopts escalatory rhetoric and delegitimization strategies, while China favors de-escalation and systemic stabilization. The findings suggest that current Russia-China alignment is tactical rather than structural. While cooperation is likely to persist in the short term, underlying divergences may generate longterm constraints and potential systemic tension.&nbsp;DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19760976

Keywords

Russia, China, global order, globalization, multipolarity, international relations, SPA

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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