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Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Authors: Martin, Tara G.; Burgman, Mark A.; Fidler, Fiona; Kuhnert, Petra M.; Low-Choy, Samantha; Mcbride, Marissa; Mengersen, Kerrie;

Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Abstract

Abstract:  Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert‐elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.

Country
Australia
Keywords

Conservation of Natural Resources, Environmental management, bias, 330, Evolution, bats, bat, Bayesian priors, decision making, 1105 Ecology, 2309 Nature and Landscape Conservation, Behavior and Systematics, veterinary and food sciences, Bias, Chiroptera, Animalia, overconfidence, Chordata, Expert Testimony, elicitation, Agricultural, Ecology, Uncertainty, Elicitation, Biodiversity, expert opinion, 004, Environmental sciences, Biological sciences, 1105 Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Applied statistics, Mammalia, Environmental management not elsewhere classified, Zoology, 2303 Ecology, Decision making, expert judgment

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    696
    popularity
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    Top 0.1%
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
696
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 0.1%
bronze