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ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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A MODEL FOR PREDICTING COVID-19 OUTCOMES IN INDIVIDUALS WITH ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION

Authors: Kuznetsova A. M.; Sleptsova S. S.; Sleptsov S. S.; Andreev M. N.;

A MODEL FOR PREDICTING COVID-19 OUTCOMES IN INDIVIDUALS WITH ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION

Abstract

The aim of the work: to develop a predictive model for fatal outcomes of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with arterial hypertension. Material and methods. A retrospective analysis was conducted using 200 medical records of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 and concomitant arterial hypertension who received inpatient treatment at the Yakut Republican Clinical Hospital (Yakutsk) between 2020 and 2022. Based on outcomes, patients were divided into two groups: Group 1 included 150 (75%) patients discharged with improvement, and Group 2 included 50 (25%) patients with a fatal outcome. To analyze the association of risk factors with adverse outcomes of COVID-19, binary logistic regression was performed using StatTech software v.4.8.11. To compare the two groups, the Student’s t-test or the Mann-Whitney U-test were used, depending on the distribution. Categorical data was expressed in absolute values and percentages. The effect was assessed using the odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval. The predictive model was built using logistic regression, the Nigelkirk coefficient R2 and ROC curves. The cut-off value was determined by the maximum of the Juden index. Results. Multivariate analysis of 200 parameters from patients with COVID-19 and hypertension identified four predictors associated with fatal outcome: age (p < 0,011), SpO2 (p = 0,001), BNP levels (p = 0,003), and C-reactive protein levels (p = 0,020). The developed model was evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC = 79,8%) and demonstrated high sensitivity (72,0%) and specificity (85,3%). Conclusion. Predictors of increased risk for adverse outcomes of coronavirus infection in patients with arterial hypertension included age, BNP and C-reactive protein concentrations, and oxygen saturation (SpO2) at admission. A predictive model for assessing the risk of adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with hypertension was developed, demonstrating high specificity and significant practical value.

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Keywords

arterial hypertension, Fatal Outcome, SARS-CoV-2, unfavorable course, COVID-19, prognostic model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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