Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ZENODOarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
addClaim

Financial Instability Trap: Formal Dynamical Model of Debt Autocatalysis, Minsky Cycles, Financial Capture, and Thucydides Extinction Risk — Work 16, Omega-u Civilizational Framework

Authors: Mishko, Nikolai;

Financial Instability Trap: Formal Dynamical Model of Debt Autocatalysis, Minsky Cycles, Financial Capture, and Thucydides Extinction Risk — Work 16, Omega-u Civilizational Framework

Abstract

We present a formal 7-dimensional dynamical systems model of Civilizational Trap #7 — Financial Instability — characterized by triple autocatalytic instability: debt growth (D), financial sector leverage (Lev), and regulatory capture (F_c). This is the strongest instability class in the Omega-u series, exceeding the dual autocatalysis of Work 15 (Social Instability). The model introduces a 7D state space: debt-to-GDP ratio, financial leverage, financial sector capture, Gini coefficient (inherited from Work 15), central bank independence, non-productive allocation share (IEP master variable u), and institutional quality. The uncontrolled system converges to four boundary attractors: debt spiral, Minsky crash, financial oligarchy, and the Thucydides extinction attractor — the only attractor in the entire series carrying civilizational extinction risk (P_extinction = P_conflict × omega_nuc). The Thucydides Trap is formalized for the first time within an AGI civilizational framework as a Nash equilibrium of hegemonic transition under financial stress: when D_H > theta_heg and GDP_C/GDP_H > theta_cha, rational strategy converges to military escalation. In the nuclear era, P_extinction ≈ 0.55 per conflict, establishing Condition 5 of the Master Theorem as lexicographically prior to all other AGI transition conditions. A piecewise Minsky switch implements regime-dependent dynamics: when D > D_crit AND Lev > Lev_crit, control effectiveness degrades to 20% for fiscal levers (80% for AGI audit channel). The instability indicator I(X) defines the minimum intervention surface: AGI optimal entry point is I(X) ≈ 0, before the Minsky threshold. An 8-lever feedback controller with elite sabotage model and AGI Peace Dividend incentive structure for Bretton-Woods-2.0 coordination completes the framework. Kazakhstan is identified as the only major economy at AGI_entry=True in 2025 (I=-0.015, D=0.28, P_extinction=0.010), with intervention window open until approximately 2035. All results verified by FINANCIAL_INSTABILITY_SIMULATOR_v1_3.py (11/11 tests pass, including T9 Thucydides extinction risk and T10 early vs late control). Part of Omega-u Civilizational Framework series, canonical DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19112296. Николай МишкоАффилиация: Asia Digital Hub, Астана, Казахстан Эл. почта: nikolaimishko@gmail.com теория v1.3 + симулятор v1.3 Рецензирование организаций: Клод (Anthropic), ChatGPT (OpenAI),DeepSeek, Кими (01.AI), Grok (xAI)

Keywords

financial instability, civilizational traps, Minsky moment, debt dynamics, leverage cycles, financial capture, Thucydides trap, hegemonic transition, nuclear extinction risk, Nash equilibrium, AGI safety, central bank independence, dynamical systems, bifurcation analysis, optimal control, AGI control strategy, Omega-u framework, Kazakhstan research, game theory, civilizational extinction

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green