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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Understanding Provenance: A User Study on Explainability in Probabilistic Multi-Evidence Reasoning Systems

Authors: Alege, Aliyu Agboola;

Understanding Provenance: A User Study on Explainability in Probabilistic Multi-Evidence Reasoning Systems

Abstract

Background: Machine learning systems deployed in high-stakes domains often lack transparency in their reasoning processes, creating barriers to user trust and appropriate reliance. While explainable AI (XAI) methods provide feature importance, they fail to expose the complete reasoning chain from evidence to prediction. Methods: We conducted a user study (N = 25) with domain experts evaluating AI predictions for tax compliance risk assessment. Participants assessed 5 carefully selected cases while viewing detailed provenance explanations that included evidence chains, contribution weights, uncertainty distributions, and source credibility scores. Results: Participants demonstrated moderate to strong understanding of provenance-based explanations (M = 3.34 ± 0.92 on a 5-point scale), with corresponding trust levels (M = 3.38 ± 0.92). Analysis revealed substantial variation across case types: high-confidence correct predictions achieved 80% acceptance, while borderline and mixed-evidence cases showed more cautious evaluation (72–80% acceptance). Understanding and trust showed positive correlation (r = 0.394), suggesting that comprehension of reasoning processes influences confidence in AI predictions. Conclusions: Provenance ledgers enable domain experts to critically evaluate AI reasoning by exposing evidence chains, weights, and uncertainty. The variation in acceptance rates across cases demonstrates appropriate reliance—participants were more cautious with low-confidence and mixed-evidence predictions. This supports the value of transparent reasoning traces for human-AI collaboration in high-stakes decision-making. Keywords:Explainable AI (XAI), provenance tracking, AI transparency, human-AI collaboration, trust in AI, appropriate reliance, multi-evidence reasoning, interpretable machine learning, decision support systems, uncertainty visualization, evidence-based AI, user studies, high-stakes AI, tax compliance systems, reasoning traceability

Keywords

provenance tracking, tax compliance systems, reasoning traceability, interpretable machine learning, human-AI collaboration, Explainable AI (XAI), user studies, AI transparency, trust in AI, evidence-based AI, uncertainty visualization, appropriate reliance, high-stakes AI, decision support systems, multi-evidence reasoning

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average