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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Signalling Inflation and Rational Adaptation: Why the Market for Cognitive Depth Collapses Gradually, Then All at Once

Authors: Han, Huiwen;

Signalling Inflation and Rational Adaptation: Why the Market for Cognitive Depth Collapses Gradually, Then All at Once

Abstract

We construct a game-theoretic account of AI-mediated cognitive decoupling in the production and consumption of knowledge content.Extending Spence's costly signalling framework to environments where production costs collapse asymmetrically, we prove that AI-mediated decoupling is a \emph{strictly dominant strategy}under a broad class of utility functions (\emph{Dominant Decoupling Theorem}).This dominance holds not because agents are deceived, but because the observable signal --- a lengthy, well-structured document ---is \emph{decoupled} from its previously costly production process,rendering the signal cheap for all types. We then model the resulting market for cognitive depth as a dynamic signalling game.We show that as AI adoption increases, the market passes through three distinct regimes: a \emph{separating equilibrium} (high-depth agents are distinguishable), a \emph{pooling equilibrium} (all agents produce identical signals), and finally a \emph{Lemons collapse} in which no credible signal remains and the market for deep content unravels (\emph{Signalling Inflation Theorem}).We characterise the speed of this collapse as a function of AI adoption rate and derive the critical adoption threshold $q^*$ beyond which the separating equilibrium is irreversibly destroyed. Finally, we identify two equilibrium escape routes:(i) \emph{certified costliness} --- institutional mechanisms that artificially re-introduce production cost (peer review, Turing-style verification) --- and (ii) \emph{market stratification} --- the emergence of a high-trust, low-volume premium market for ``AI-free'' content.We characterise conditions under which each escape route is stable, and show that without external intervention, the system converges to a pooling equilibrium with socially sub-optimal information production.

Keywords

pooling equilibrium, signalling theory, AI adoption, Lemons market, information market, social capital, knowledge production, cognitive decoupling, costly signal, Bayesian persuasion, separating equilibrium

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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