Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
ZENODOarrow_drop_down
ZENODO
Article . 2013
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2013
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 2 versions
addClaim

Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Adoption Rates in Senegal's Community Health Centers Systems

Authors: Oumar, Madi; Keita, Ba;

Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Adoption Rates in Senegal's Community Health Centers Systems

Abstract

Community health centers in Senegal have been established to improve healthcare access and outcomes for underserved populations. However, there is a need to evaluate their adoption rates over time. A time-series analysis was conducted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The model's parameters were estimated through maximum likelihood estimation, with robust standard errors accounting for potential heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The ARIMA(1,0,1) model demonstrated a good fit to the data, with an R-squared value of 0.85 indicating that 85% of the variance in adoption rates is explained by the model. The estimated forecast error standard deviation was 0.23. The ARIMA(1,0,1) model accurately predicted future adoption rates for community health centers in Senegal over a five-year horizon. Based on these findings, public health officials should consider implementing additional incentives to enhance the uptake of community health centre services and monitor the effectiveness of such interventions through ongoing time-series analysis. Community Health Centers, Adoption Rates, Time-Series Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Senegal Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

Keywords

geographic information systems, Sub-Saharan, econometric, time-series analysis, forecasting, intervention evaluation, health systems

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!