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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Empirical Analysis of Hydrological Loading and Seasonal Micro-Seismicity in the Garhwal Himalayas

Authors: Gurav, Snehal;

Empirical Analysis of Hydrological Loading and Seasonal Micro-Seismicity in the Garhwal Himalayas

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between seasonal hydrological loading and micro-seismic activity in the Garhwal Himalayas. Using a Python-based computational pipeline, earthquake data was extracted from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards API and analyzed alongside regional climatological rainfall data spanning 2010–2025. The empirical analysis demonstrates a strong inverse correlation between monsoon rainfall and seismic activity. During peak monsoon months, increased hydrological loading suppresses fault movement through enhanced normal stress, while winter drainage phases correspond with increased micro-seismicity due to fault unclamping. Statistical testing using Pearson correlation and Ordinary Least Squares regression confirms a significant negative correlation between rainfall intensity and earthquake frequency. These findings support the Coulomb failure stress hypothesis and suggest that seasonal hydrological loading can modulate the timing of tectonic events in high-altitude orogenic systems.

Keywords

Monsoon Seismicity, Geophysics, Garhwal Himalayas, USGS Earthquake Data, Hydrological Loading, Climate Change, Seismicity, Tectonics, Plate tectonics, Climate change, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Coulomb Failure Stress, Microseismicity

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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