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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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The 1966 Structural Break: A Formal Test of Change-Point in New Zealand Religious Affiliation Census Data, 1926–2023

Authors: Keruru, Christopher; Keruru, Claude;

The 1966 Structural Break: A Formal Test of Change-Point in New Zealand Religious Affiliation Census Data, 1926–2023

Abstract

New Zealand census data show a well-documented decline in mainline Protestantaffiliation and corresponding rise in non-religious identification from the mid-1960s onward.Despite extensive historical and sociological commentary on this transition, no formalstatistical test of the structural break has been published. We apply the Chow test exhaustivelyacross all candidate break years in the census time series for mainline Protestant share(Anglican + Presbyterian + Methodist), Catholic share, Pentecostal share, and No Religionshare. The optimal break for mainline Protestant decline is identified at 1971 (F = 97.4, p <0.0001), with the closely adjacent 1966 census also highly significant (F = 91.4). Before thebreak, mainline share declined at approximately 0.30 percentage points per year; after it, at0.86 pp/year — a 2.9-fold acceleration. The No Religion break is identified at 1976 (F = 169.7,p < 0.0001), one census later, consistent with a transitional lag. Results are confirmed bypermutation test (10,000 iterations, p < 0.0001 for all series). These findings provide the firstformal quantitative confirmation of what NZ religious historians have long describednarratively.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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