Declaração de honra / Declaration of Honour ............................................................................ 7Agradecimentos ............................................................................................................................ 8Resumo ....................................................................................................................................... 10Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... 11Image Index ................................................................................................................................ 12Table Index .................................................................................................................................. 12Graphic Index .............................................................................................................................. 13Maps Index ................................................................................................................................. 14Schematics Index ........................................................................................................................ 15Figure Index ................................................................................................................................ 15Heatmap Index ........................................................................................................................... 15List of Abbreviations and Acronyms .......................................................................................... 16Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 18Part I-Methodology and conceptual issues ............................................................................... 201. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 201.1. The case study .................................................................................................................... 201.2. Chronological and Geographical Delimitations ................................................................ 211.3. Research goals ................................................................................................................... 221.4. Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 241.5. Statistical data on the events on the ground .................................................................... 241.6. Concepts ............................................................................................................................. 262. Conflict ................................................................................................................................... 282.1. Conflict - a definable concept? .......................................................................................... 282.2. Conflict, a social construct? ............................................................................................... 302.3. The moving elements of Conflict- Emotion ...................................................................... 322.4. Protracted Intractable Conflicts ........................................................................................ 342.5. Conflict Analysis ................................................................................................................. 363. How to map a Conflict remotely ........................................................................................... 383.1. The information question .................................................................................................. 383.2. Problems about the information on the Western Sahara Conflict .................................. 403.3. The War communiques ...................................................................................................... 413.4. How to transform Qualitative Data into Quantitative Data ............................................ 433.5. Chronological Data ............................................................................................................. 433.6. Geographical Data ............................................................................................................. 433.7. Attack Data......................................................................................................................... 463.8. Additional Information ...................................................................................................... 474. Database Creation logic ........................................................................................................ 47Part II – The Conflict: The Project Western Sahara War Archives and its analytical outcomes, and a detailed view of the data ................................................................................................. 491. The Conflict Wheel ................................................................................................................ 491.1. Context- Western Sahara: Between Colonialism and Freedom ....................................... 501.2. The end of the 1st Phase of the Conflict and the start of the 2nd Phase of the Conflict 511.3. The complex negotiations ................................................................................................. 531.4. The referendum problem .................................................................................................. 581.5. A long and slow walk towards Conflict ............................................................................. 601.6. A low-intensity protracted conflict enters a new phase (2020-onwards) ....................... 651.7. 2020 .................................................................................................................................... 651.8. 2021 .................................................................................................................................... 681.9. 2022 .................................................................................................................................... 741.10. 2023 ........................................................................................................................... 771.11. 2024 ........................................................................................................................... 801.12. The Stakeholders Analysis- A Triad masked as a Dyad ............................................ 831.13. The Conflict Tree ....................................................................................................... 851.14. Dynamics ................................................................................................................... 851.15. Causations ................................................................................................................. 871.16. Options Strategies ..................................................................................................... 872. The 3rd Phase of the conflict: a detailed view of the data .................................................. 872.1. The Theatre of Operations: Western Sahara – The Data ................................................. 872.2. The Chronological Analysis ................................................................................................ 882.3. The Geographical Analysis ................................................................................................. 892.4. Mega-Level: Occupied Western Sahara ............................................................................ 892.5. Macro-Level: The MRs ....................................................................................................... 892.6. Meso-Level: The Sectors .................................................................................................... 902.7. The UAV/UCAV question ................................................................................................... 90Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 92Bibliography ................................................................................................................................ 96Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 106Appendix 1- Linear escalatory reciprocal Action-Reaction response of a conflict ............... 107Appendix 2-Conflict Cycle....................................................................................................... 109Appendix 3- Spheres of Conflict ............................................................................................. 111Appendix 4- Political Map of Western Sahara....................................................................... 113Appendix 5-The Conflict Wheel ............................................................................................. 115Appendix 6-Protracted Intractable Conflicts Matrix ............................................................. 117Appendix 7-Action of James Baker as PESG .......................................................................... 119Appendix 8-SIPRI Arms Transfers Database .......................................................................... 121Appendix 9-Ranking of the Major Weapons Exporting Countries to Morocco .................... 125Appendix 10- Conflict Tree ..................................................................................................... 128Appendix 11- Stakeholder Matrix Analysis ........................................................................... 130Appendix 12-Coding Scheme for Actor Scores ...................................................................... 140Appendix 13-Stakeholder Power vs Interest Map ................................................................ 147Appendix 14- Heatmap-Multidimensional Comparison of the Parties to the Conflict ........ 149Appendix 16- Radar Chart-Multidimensional Profiles .......................................................... 151Appendix 17- Western Sahara Conflict Triad ........................................................................ 153Appendix 18- Conflict Map-Western Sahara ......................................................................... 155Appendix 19- War Communiques Analysis ............................................................................ 157Appendix 20- Information Processing.................................................................................... 163Appendix 21- Data standardisation ....................................................................................... 169Appendix 22- Event Day/Non-Event Day Relation Matrix .................................................... 174Appendix 23- Chronological analysis ..................................................................................... 211Appendix 24- Geographical analysis: Mega-level .................................................................. 218Appendix 25- Geographical analysis: Macro-level ................................................................ 224Appendix 26- Geographical analysis: Meso-level .................................................................. 233

Image Index IMAGE 1-EXAMPLE OF “COMUNICADO MILITAR” OR “PARTE DE GUERRA” AS POSTED IN SPS ................. 158IMAGE 2- “COMUNICADO MILITAR” NUMBER 345 OF THE 23RD OF NOVEMBER 2021 ............................ 159IMAGE 3-WHERE TO FIND THE CHRONOLOGICAL INDICATOR IN A COMUNICADO DE GUERRA OR PARTE DE GUERRA. SOURCE: COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 300 OF 7TH OF SEPTEMBER 2021 ................... 160IMAGE 4-SPECIFIC WORD INDICATING THE EXISTENCE OF MULTI LAYERS OF MILITARY ACTION. SOURCE: COMUNICADO MILITARY NUMBER 214 OF 13TH OF JUNE OF 2021. ............................................... 160IMAGE 5-WHERE TO FIND INFORMATION IN DIFFERENT FORMS OF COMUNICADO DE GUERRA OR PARTE DE GUERRA. ON THE LEFT, THE COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 300 OF 7TH OF SEPTEMBER 2021, ON THE RIGHT COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 156 OF 16TH OF APRIL 2021. SOURCE: SPS ..................... 161IMAGE 6- DIFFERENT FORMS OF COMUNICADO DE GUERRA OR PARTE DE GUERRA. ON THE LEFT, THE COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 300 OF 7TH OF SEPTEMBER 2021, ON THE RIGHT COMUNICADO MILITAR NUMBER 156 OF 16TH OF APRIL 2021. SOURCE: SPS ................................................... 161IMAGE 7- QUANTIFICATION OF ATTACKS EXPRESSED IN COMUNICADO DE GUERRA OR PARTE DE GUERRA OR COMUNICADO MILITAR. SOURCE: COMUNICADO DE GUERRA NUMBER 213 OF 12TH OF JUNE 2021. 162IMAGE 8- EXAMPLE OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PRESENT IN COMUNICADO DE GUERRA, PARTE DE GUERRA OR COMUNIDADO MILITAR. SOURCE: COMUNIDADO MILITAR NUMBER 205 OF 30TH OF MAY 2021 163IMAGE 9-WSWA DATA DISTRIBUTION TABLE ................................................................................... 165IMAGE 10- WSWA DATA DISTRIBUTION TABLE DETAIL: OUED DARAA FIELD ......................................... 165 Table Index TABLE 1- MOROCCO PURCHASED AERIAL MILITARY HEAVY EQUIPMENT BETWEEN 1975 AND 2024. SOURCE(STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SIPRI) 2025) ....................... 124TABLE 2-RANKING OF THE MAJOR WEAPONS EXPORTING COUNTRIES TO MOROCCO. SOURCE: (SIPRI 1966) ........................................................................................................................................... 126TABLE 3-STAKEHOLDER MATRIX ...................................................................................................... 139TABLE 4- SUMMARY OF THE DATA ANALYSED .................................................................................... 164TABLE 5--MATRIX OF THE COMPOSITION OF THE THEATRE OF OPERATIONS IN WESTERN SAHARA ............ 171TABLE 6-- MR1 MOST COMMON ATTACK LOCATIONS INCORRECT-CORRECT NAME SPELLING CORRESPONDENCE MATRIX ................................................................................................................................ 172TABLE 7- MR2 MOST COMMON ATTACK LOCATIONS INCORRECT-CORRECT NAME SPELLING CORRESPONDENCE MATRIX ................................................................................................................................ 173TABLE 8- MR3 MOST COMMON ATTACK LOCATIONS INCORRECT-CORRECT NAME SPELLING CORRESPONDENCE MATRIX ................................................................................................................................ 173TABLE 9-EVENT DAY/NON-EVENT DAY RELATION MATRIX ................................................................. 208TABLE 10-RELATION BETWEEN EVENT DAYS VS NON-EVENT DAY YOY ................................................. 210TABLE 11-NUMBER OF EVENTS REGISTERED DURING THE FIRST 4 YEARS OF THE 3RD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT. ................................................................................................................ 212TABLE 12- MATRIX OF RELATION OF THE YEAR OF THE CONFLICT AND THE CIVIL YEAR .............................. 212TABLE 13-WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT MONTHLY TENDENCY ............................................................ 215TABLE 14-RELATION BETWEEN EVENT DAYS VS NON-EVENT DAYS ....................................................... 215TABLE 15-RELATION BETWEEN EVENT DAYS VS NON-EVENT DAY YOY ................................................. 216TABLE 16- WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT SEASON TENDENCY ............................................................... 216TABLE 17- WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT SEASON TENDENCY (%) ......................................................... 217TABLE 18-MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................... 219TABLE 19- MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS (%). ........................................................................................... 219TABLE 20-MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS-DETAILED OVERVIEW-YEARLY EVOLUTION ....................................... 220TABLE 21-MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS-DETAILED OVERVIEW-MILITARY DISTRIBUTION ................................ 221TABLE 22-MACRO-LEVEL -YEAR ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 225TABLE 23-MACRO-LEVEL -YEAR ANALYSIS (%) .................................................................................. 226TABLE 24-MACRO-LEVEL /MESO-LEVEL-TOTAL ANALYSIS .................................................................. 234TABLE 25-MACRO-LEVEL /MESO-LEVEL-TOTAL ANALYSIS (%) ............................................................ 235 Graphic Index GRAPHIC 1-RANKING OF THE MAJOR WEAPONS EXPORTING COUNTRIES TO MOROCCO ......................... 127GRAPHIC 2-STAKEHOLDER VS INTEREST MAP .................................................................................... 148GRAPHIC 3-RADAR CHART-MULTIDIMENSIONAL PROFILES ................................................................. 152GRAPHIC 4-TENDENCY OF THE REGISTERED EVENTS OF THE FIRST FOUR YEARS OF THE 3RD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA WAR ........................................................................................................ 213GRAPHIC 5-EVENT DAY VS NON-EVENT DAY RELATION MATRIX ......................................................... 216GRAPHIC 6- WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT SEASON TENDENCY (%) ....................................................... 217GRAPHIC 7-MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS (%) ........................................................................................... 220GRAPHIC 8-EVOLUTION OF THE 3RD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT 2020-2024 (MEGA-LEVEL) ........................................................................................................................................... 223GRAPHIC 9-MACRO-LEVEL -YEAR ANALYSIS (%) ................................................................................ 226GRAPHIC 10-MACRO-LEVEL -YEAR ANALYSIS .................................................................................... 227GRAPHIC 11-EVOLUTION OF THE 3RD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT................................... 232GRAPHIC 13-MACRO-LEVEL /MESO-LEVEL-TOTAL ANALYSIS (%) ........................................................ 236GRAPHIC 12-NUMBER OF EVENTS PER SECTOR .................................................................................. 236 Maps Index MAP 1- POLITICAL MAP OF WESTERN SAHARA. SOURCE: MINURSO & OCHA. AUTHOR: JORGE TEIXEIRA ........................................................................................................................................... 114MAP 2-CONFLICT MAP-WESTERN SAHARA ...................................................................................... 156MAP 3- WESTERN SAHARA WAR MAP- GENERAL MAP. AUTHOR: SELF ............................................... 166MAP 4-EXAMPLE OF AN ATTACK MAP- WESTERN SAHARA WAR MAP-WEEK 103: 24-10-2022 – 30-10-2022. GENERAL MAP. AUTHOR: SELF. SOURCE: WSWA ........................................................... 167MAP 5-EXAMPLE OF AN ANALASIS ATTACK MAP- WESTERN SAHARA WAR MAP-YEAR 2. GENERAL MAP. AUTHOR: SELF. SOURCE: WSWA ............................................................................................ 168MAP 6--WESTERN SAHARA WAR MAP: MEGA-LEVEL ANALYSIS (FOUR YEARS COMPARISON). SOURCE: WSWA. AUTHOR: SELF ......................................................................................................... 222MAP 7-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 1 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MACRO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF .................................................... 228MAP 8-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 2 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MACRO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF .................................................... 229MAP 9-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 3 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MACRO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF .................................................... 230MAP 10-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 4 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MACRO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF .................................................... 231MAP 11- NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 1 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MESO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF ...................................................... 237MAP 12-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 2 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MESO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF ...................................................... 238MAP 13-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 3 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MESO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF ...................................................... 239MAP 14-NUMBER OF POLISARIO ATTACKS REGISTERED DURING YEAR 4 OF THE THIRD PHASE OF THE WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT (MESO-LEVEL). AUTHOR: SELF ...................................................... 240 Schematics Index SCHEMATIC 1- LINEAR ESCALATORY RECIPROCAL ACTION-REACTION RESPONSE OF A CONFLICT. SOURCE: (CLAUSEWITZ 2023) .............................................................................................................. 108SCHEMATIC 2- CONFLICT CYCLE. SOURCE: (CLAUSEWITZ 2023) ........................................................... 110SCHEMATIC 3. THE SPHERES OF CONFLICT......................................................................................... 112SCHEMATIC 4- THE CONFLICT WHEEL. SOURCE: (MASON AND RYCHARD 2005) .................................... 116SCHEMATIC 5-ACTION OF JAMES BAKER AS PESG ............................................................................. 120 Figure Index FIGURE 1-PROTRACTED INTRACTABLE CONFLICTS MATRIX. ................................................................. 118FIGURE 2- WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT TREE ................................................................................... 129FIGURE 3-WESTERN SAHARA CONFLICT TRIANGLE: CONFLICT TRIAD .................................................... 154 Heatmap Index HEATMAP 1-MULTIDIMENSIONAL COMPARISON OF THE PARTIES TO THE CONFLICT ................................ 150

List of Abbreviations and AcronymsACLED………… ARMED CONFLICT LOCATION & EVENT DATA PROJECTAU…………… AFRICAN UNIONCEAUP………. CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIADE DO PORTODMZ………… DEMILITARIZED ZONEELPS.….…….. EJÉRCITO DE LIBERACIÓN DEL PUEBLO SAHARAUIFAR…………. FORCÉS ARMÉ ROYALFRENTE POLISARIO … FRENTE DE LIBERACIÓN DE SAGUÍA EL HAMRA Y RÍO DE OROGIS ……………………. GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMICJ ……………………. INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICEISC.……………………. INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE COUNCILISR…………………….. INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCEISTAR…………………INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, TARGET ACQUISITION AND RECONNAISSANCEMALE…………………MEDIUM ALTITUDE LONG ENDURANCEMINURSO……………. MISSION DES NATIONS UNIES POUR L'ORGANISATION D'UN RÉFÉRENDUM AU SAHARA OCCIDENTALMUN-T………………….. MANNED-UNMANNED TEAMINGNAM………………….. NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENTOAU………………….. ORGANISATION OF THE AFRICAN UNIONPESG………………….. PERSONAL ENVOY OF THE SECRETARY-GENERALPOTUS………………….. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATESPOW………………….. PRISONERS OF WARSADR………………….. SAHRAWI ARAB DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICSMACO………………… SAHRAWI MINE ACTION COORDINATION OFFICESPS………………….. SAHARAN PRESS SERVICESRSG………….. SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SECRETARY-GENERALUAE………….. UNITED ARABS EMIRATESUAV………….. UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLESUCAV……….. UNMANNED COMBAT AERIAL VEHICLESUN ………….. UNITED NATIONSUNCAT……….. UN COMMITTEE AGAINST TORTUREUNDRR…….. UNITED NATIONS OFFICE FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONUNGS ………. UNITED NATIONS GEOGRAPHICAL SERVICESUNHRC……….. UNITED NATIONS HIGH COMMISSION FOR REFUGEEUNICEF………… UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL CHILDREN'S EMERGENCY FUNDUNSC ……….. UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCILUNSG ……….. UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY GENERALUS/USA…………….. UNITED STATES OF AMERICAUSSR……….. UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICSWGAD………….. WORKING GROUP ON ARBITRARY DETENTIONWSWA……….. WESTERN SAHARA WAR ARCHIVESWSWR………….. WESTERN SAHARA RESOURCE WATCH

Abstract On 13 November 2020, following a Moroccan attack on a peaceful demonstration by Sahrawi civilians in Guergarat, the POLISARIO Front, faced with Moroccan impunity, MINURSO inaction and international apathy, declared an end to the ceasefire and returned to armed struggle. Morocco, protected by France and the United States, denied the resumption of the conflict and launched a disinformation campaign. As at the beginning of the occupation, the danger of information loss is real. In order to preserve, make available and analyse information, CEAUP has created a digital platform: Western Sahara War Archives. This platform is the basis for the work of this dissertation. Conflicts are dynamic systems by nature, with multiple moving parts that can alter the dynamics of power at any moment. Even within this system, protracted conflicts are conflicts that are distinguished by being systems with variables that are self-sustaining, self-regenerating, and intra- and inter-influential. Based on a case study, the Western Sahara conflict, this dissertation seeks to contribute to the understanding of some of its characteristics. Through the use of conflict analysis methodologies, it aims to answer the following questions: Was the resumption of the conflict inevitable? What elements were directly and indirectly involved in the conflict? What were the networks of power and influence? How did operations unfold on the ground during the first four years of the conflict? This dissertation demonstrates how the resumption of the conflict was impossible to prevent. Decades of external interference, inaction on the part of international institutions, and an aggressive policy of acceptance of faits accomplis on the part of Morocco made mediation efforts impossible. Key-words: Conflict Studies, Protracted Intractable Conflicts, Colonialism, Western Sahara

Resumo A 13 de novembro de 2020, depois de um ataque marroquino contra uma manifestação pacífica de civis saharaui em Guergarat, a Frente POLISARIO, perante a impunidade marroquina, a inação da MINURSO e a apatia da comunidade internacional, declarou o fim do cessar-fogo e regressou à luta armada. Marrocos, protegido pela França e pelos Estados Unidos, denegou o reinício do conflito e lançou uma campanha de desinformação. À semelhança do início da ocupação, o perigo de perda de informação é real. De forma a se conseguir preservar, disponibilizar e analisar informação, o CEAUP criou uma plataforma digital: Western Sahara War Archives. Esta plataforma é a base do trabalho desta dissertação. Conflitos são sistemas dinâmicos por natureza, com múltiplas partes móveis que a qualquer momento podem alterar as dinâmicas de poder. Mesmo dentro deste sistema, conflitos prolongados são conflitos que se distinguem por serem sistemas com variáveis com que se autossustentam, autorregeneram, intra- e interinfluenciam. Partindo de um estudo de caso, o conflito do Sahara Ocidental, a presente dissertação procura contribuir para a compreensão de algumas das suas características. Através da utilização de metodologias de análise de conflitos, pretende-se responder às seguintes questões: era o reinício do conflito inevitável? Quais os elementos diretamente e indiretamente envolvidos no conflito? Quais as redes de poder e influências? Como estão a decorrer as operações no terreno durante os primeiros quatro anos do conflito? Esta dissertação demonstra como o reinício do conflito era impossível de travar. Décadas de interferências externas, não ação por parte das instituições internacionais e uma agressiva política de aceitação de factos consumados, por parte de Marrocos, transformaram impossíveis os esforços dos processos de mediação.