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Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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THE IMPACT OF RISING OIL PRICES ON PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, BUDGET BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, INFLATION, GDP, AND OIL REVENUE IN CAMEROON

Authors: Njoudiyimoun Gbetnkom Mama Najip; Ngouhouo Ibrahim; Njoupouognigni Moussa;

THE IMPACT OF RISING OIL PRICES ON PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, BUDGET BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, INFLATION, GDP, AND OIL REVENUE IN CAMEROON

Abstract

Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of rising oil prices on the Cameroonian economy, focusing on public expenditure, the budget balance, the current account balance, inflation, real GDP, and oil revenues over the period 1985–2024. Using annual data and a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in first differences, the study examines the short-run dynamics generated by oil price shocks in a context characterized by structural constraints and data limitations. The results show that oil price increases lead to an immediate and significant rise in oil revenues, strengthening short-term public financing capacity, but these gains are not sustained and are accompanied by procyclical public spending that ultimately deteriorates the budget balance. The current account improves only temporarily before being offset by rising imports, consistent with Dutch disease effects, while real GDP responds weakly, reflecting limited transmission of oil rents to long-term growth. oil price shocks generate mild and short-lived inflationary pressures, reflecting limited pass-through to domestic prices. The forecast error variance decomposition further indicates that oil price shocks explain only a small share of fluctuations in most domestic macroeconomic variables, except for oil revenues, underscoring the dominant role of structural and institutional factors. Overall, the findings support the resource curse hypothesis and emphasize the need for countercyclical fiscal policies, effective oil revenue management, and economic diversification to reduce vulnerability to oil price volatility and promote sustainable economic growth in Cameroon.

Keywords

Macroeconomic shocks, Oil prices, Public finances, VAR model, Public finance, Inflation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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