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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Structural Fragmentation in Electricity Networks as an Early Warning Signal for Extreme Price Spikes

Authors: Aizawa, Hiroaki;

Structural Fragmentation in Electricity Networks as an Early Warning Signal for Extreme Price Spikes

Abstract

This study investigates whether structural fragmentation in electricity networks can provide early warning signals for extreme price spikes. Using one year of PJM real-time electricity market data, the analysis examines cross-sectional dispersion of locational marginal prices (LMP) across network nodes. The results show that higher network dispersion is associated with substantially higher probability of next-day extreme price spikes, even within the same system price regimes. These findings suggest that structural signals inside infrastructure networks may provide early indications of systemic stress before instability becomes visible in aggregate market prices.

Keywords

electricity price spikes LMP dispersion power market instability network structure early warning signals energy systems, electricity markets energy economics price spikes locational marginal pricing power grid systemic risk network fragmentation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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