Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
ZENODOarrow_drop_down
ZENODO
Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 2 versions
addClaim

Cross-Domain Pre-Ictal Detection via Nonlinear Algebraic Instability Metrics: From Brain Seizures to Earthquake Precursors

Authors: Connelly, Matthew;

Cross-Domain Pre-Ictal Detection via Nonlinear Algebraic Instability Metrics: From Brain Seizures to Earthquake Precursors

Abstract

This article presents a novel, training-free method for predicting critical transitions in complex systems—specifically epileptic seizures and earthquakes—using a single mathematical framework grounded in non-associative algebra. The researchers demonstrate that by encoding multivariate time series (like EEG or seismic data) into octonions (8-dimensional numbers), they can measure a quantity called the associator. Because the associator is mathematically guaranteed to be zero for linear or stationary signals, it serves as a highly sensitive "instability metric" for detecting the subtle nonlinear coupling that precedes a system's collapse. Key Findings: Domain Independence: The exact same algorithm and parameter configuration were used for both brain activity and crustal displacement, suggesting a universal mathematical signature for "pre-ictal" states. Seizure Prediction: Validated on the full CHB-MIT dataset (24 patients), the method achieved a 34.4% pre-onset sensitivity with an average lead time of 38.6 minutes, all without any patient-specific training or AI model tuning. Earthquake Precursors: In a retrospective analysis of the 2010 M7.2 Baja California earthquake, the metric identified a "pre-ictal" crustal state 11.9 days before the mainshock, aligning with independently recorded foreshock activity. Interpretability & Efficiency: Unlike "black-box" deep learning, the method relies on a single, mathematically defined algebraic feature. It is computationally lightweight enough to run in real-time on a Raspberry Pi, making it suitable for wearable medical devices or remote seismic stations. The study concludes that non-associative algebraic structures provide a unique "lens" for identifying the universal precursors of failure in dynamical systems, offering a path toward reliable, zero-training early warning systems for both clinical and geophysical applications.

Keywords

Seizures/prevention & control, Epilepsy, Brain/physiopathology, Electroencephalography, Signal Processing, Computer-Assisted, Interrupted Time Series Analysis, Epilepsy/classification, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Models, Theoretical, Earthquakes/statistics & numerical data, Geophysics, Nonlinear Dynamics, Seizures, Forecasting/methods, FOS: Mathematics, Earthquakes/classification, Algorithms, Mathematics, Seismology, Forecasting, Earthquakes/prevention & control

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Related to Research communities
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!