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Conference object . 2026
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Article . 2026
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Article . 2026
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ENCODE: EXPLAINABILITY OF PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY MODELS UNDER DRIFT IN THE TELECOM DOMAIN

Authors: Walchatwar, Nagesh; Hata, Alberto; Kattepur, Ajay;

ENCODE: EXPLAINABILITY OF PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY MODELS UNDER DRIFT IN THE TELECOM DOMAIN

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) models deployed in dynamic environments are prone to distributional shifts that degrade predictive reliability. While uncertainty quantification and drift detection are widely studied, their interaction with explainability remains insufficiently understood, particularly for regression tasks under covariate shift. This paper presents a unified experimental framework that integrates uncer- tainty quantification (UQ), calibration, drift analysis, and explainable AI (XAI) for regression models in a real-world telecommunications setting. We evaluate Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with Monte Carlo Dropout and deep ensembles, quantifying predictive uncertainty using variance and assessing calibration quality via Expected Normalized Calibration Error (ENCE). The results show that BNNs exhibit higher sensitiv- ity to drift through pronounced increases in predictive uncertainty, while ensemble models provide more stable but less adaptive estimates. Importantly, explanation patterns consistently track uncertainty degradation, highlighting the value of XAI as a diagnostic tool for drift-aware model monitoring and lifecycle management in non-stationary environments.

Keywords

Artificial Intelligence

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average