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Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Consequences of the Power Vacuum in Iran: Risks, Opportunities, and Future Trajectories Following the February 2026 Leadership Decapitation

Authors: Pokorny, Laszlo;

Consequences of the Power Vacuum in Iran: Risks, Opportunities, and Future Trajectories Following the February 2026 Leadership Decapitation

Abstract

The assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and over forty senior officials in coordinated United States-Israeli military strikes on February 28, 2026, has precipitated the most severe leadership crisis in the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979. This article provides a comprehensive scholarly analysis of the power vacuum that has emerged, examining the constitutional mechanisms for succession, the formation of the Interim Leadership Council, and the competing scenarios for future governance. Drawing upon established theoretical frameworks from political science—including power transition theory, decapitation strategy literature, and regime change studies—this analysis situates the Iranian crisis within broader patterns of state transformation. The study evaluates three primary succession scenarios: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military consolidation, constitutional succession through the Assembly of Experts, and an opposition-led democratic transition. Furthermore, the article assesses the dual nature of the current instability, examining both the significant risks of regional conflagration and the potential opportunities for Middle Eastern peace and Iranian democratization. Historical precedents from the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 2003 Iraq invasion, and the 2011 Libya intervention are analyzed to contextualize potential transition pathways. The findings suggest that while the decapitation strategy has created unprecedented regime vulnerability, the path forward remains contingent upon the interplay between institutional resilience, civil society mobilization, and international engagement.

Keywords

supreme leader, Middle East, regime change, decapitation strategy, power transition theory, IRGC, War, Iran, democratic transition, power vacuum

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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