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Part of book or chapter of book . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Part of book or chapter of book . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Forecasting the Price of the Mexican Export Crude Blend: Discrete Model vs. Continuous Model

Authors: Ortiz-Ramírez, Ambrosio; Garcia-Remigio, Carlos Manuel;

Forecasting the Price of the Mexican Export Crude Blend: Discrete Model vs. Continuous Model

Abstract

This work executes the price forecasting of the Mexican Crude Oil Export Blend (MME) using two methodologies. The first consists of the identification, estimation, and validation of an ARMA(p,q) time series model. An ARMA(2,0,2) model is chosen for yielding the minimum value for three information criteria (AIC, BIC, HQIC) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Secondly, the trend and volatility parameters of the Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) of a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) are estimated, and predictions are executed through Monte Carlo simulation with 20,000 trajectories. According to the empirical evidence analyzed when comparing the RMSE performance measures of both models, a value of 1.27 was obtained with the ARMA(2,0,2), while a value of 35 was obtained with the GBM. In this sense, the advantages and limitations of the proposed models differ, leading to the conclusion that, for short time periods, discrete-time models are more efficient than continuous-time models.

Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, Stochastic Processes, Economic forecasting, Interrupted Time Series Analysis, Econometrics, Applied mathematics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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