
This deliverable was developed within the CLIMAAX project to provide the Municipality of Ruse with a refined and locally relevant climate risk assessment focused on the priority risks identified for the territory. It addresses the need for a clear, evidence-based understanding of how climate change is expected to affect key hazards and associated risks at municipal level, to support informed adaptation planning and decision-making. From this deliverable, the reader gains a consolidated overview of the analyzed climate risks for Ruse, the main results of the refined hazard and risk assessments, and the implications of these findings for future risk management. Main results and findings This deliverable presents the results of the second phase of the CLIMAAX climate risk assessment for Ruse, building on the initial risk identification and prioritization carried out in the previous phase of the project. Based on this prioritization, the assessment focuses on river floods, wildfires, and heavy rainfall as the most relevant climate risks for the municipality. During this phase, detailed hazard and risk analyses were conducted for each of the three priority risks using harmonized CLIMAAX workflows and regional climate data. The analyses quantify projected changes in hazard characteristics under mid-century climate conditions (2041–2070) and translate these changes into risk-relevant indicators by considering exposure and vulnerability at municipal scale. The refined assessment of heavy rainfall shows a clear intensification of extreme precipitation events. Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events are projected to become both more frequent and more intense, leading to an increased likelihood of surface flooding, exceedance of urban drainage capacity, and cascading impacts on infrastructure and services. Events that historically occurred relatively infrequently are projected to occur at substantially shorter return periods under future climate conditions. The analysis of river flood risk confirms the continued relevance of fluvial flooding for Ruse, particularly in areas influenced by the Danube and its tributaries. Climate-driven changes in precipitation patterns, including more intense rainfall events, are expected to increase flood hazard and may amplify flood risk when combined with existing exposure and vulnerability patterns. The wildfire risk assessment indicates an increased likelihood of conditions conducive to wildfire occurrence, driven by projected changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. The results point to a heightened potential for wildfire impacts in and around the municipality, with implications for natural areas, peri-urban zones, and emergency response capacity. Overall, the analyses show that the three priority risks are expected to intensify under climate change, with potential interactions between hazards further increasing the complexity of risk management. The results provide a robust and transparent evidence base that directly contributes to the objectives of the CLIMAAX project by translating climate projections into actionable local risk information. Conclusions The refined climate risk assessment demonstrates that river floods, wildfires, and heavy rainfall represent increasing and interrelated risks for the Municipality of Ruse under future climate conditions. Heavy rainfall emerges as a particularly dynamic risk due to its projected increase in both intensity and frequency, while river floods and wildfires remain critical threats requiring targeted adaptation responses. The deliverable provides a solid foundation for prioritizing adaptation actions. Plans for the final phase In the final phase of the project, the results of this deliverable will be used to support the identification, assessment, and prioritization of climate adaptation measures addressing river floods, wildfires, and heavy rainfall in Ruse. The refined risk information will inform the development of practical adaptation pathways aligned with municipal needs and CLIMAAX objectives.
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