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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Fragility as a Memory-Dependent System: Structural Overload and the Architecture of Threshold Regime Shift

Authors: Lim Kheng Cheong, Larry;

Fragility as a Memory-Dependent System: Structural Overload and the Architecture of Threshold Regime Shift

Abstract

This paper presents the conceptual architecture of a memory-dependent threshold framework for macroeconomic instability. Rather than treating crises as equilibrium deviations triggered by exogenous shocks, the framework proposes that macroeconomic regime shifts occur when accumulated coordination strain exceeds structural capacity. Instability is modeled as a first-passage threshold event within a minimal dynamical system, integrating structural fragility, a measurable collapse functional, and bounded release mechanisms. The objective is not crisis prediction but the formulation of a falsifiable structural instability law. The theoretical foundations of this framework are developed in the author’s monographs Almost Successful: Macroeconomics at a Threshold, Fragile by Design: Why Modern Economies Remember, Break, and Refuse to Reset, and Before the Choice: Microeconomics in a World That Remembers, which examine policy space compression, structural overload, and memory accumulation in modern economic systems. This paper serves as the architectural foundation for a staged empirical validation program.

Keywords

Macroeconomic fragility, structural overload, threshold dynamics, regime shift, financial instability, policy space, memory-dependent systems, collapse functional, macro-financial dynamics, first-passage time, systemic risk

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green