Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
ZENODOarrow_drop_down
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 2 versions
addClaim

FROM ONTOGENY TO INSTITUTIONAL CALCIFICATION - Group Membership Bias as the Cognitive Engine of Asymmetric Legal Persistence

Authors: LERER, Ignacio Adrian;

FROM ONTOGENY TO INSTITUTIONAL CALCIFICATION - Group Membership Bias as the Cognitive Engine of Asymmetric Legal Persistence

Abstract

Why do legal institutions persist even when evidence overwhelmingly favors reform? The standard explanations, from veto players (Tsebelis, 2002) to path dependence (Pierson, 2000), describe outcomes without explaining their cognitive mechanics. Recent experimental evidence offers a candidate mechanism: Confer et al. (2025) demonstrate that children as young as four alter their evidentiary standards as a function of group membership, sampling less evidence before adopting group beliefs (χ²(1) = 78.15, p = 0.012), inflating confidence in group-supporting evidence by approximately 39% (χ²(1) = 128.03, p < 0.001), and revising beliefs at half the rate when group identity is salient (χ²(1) = 7.46, p = 0.006). If this cognitive architecture, which operates before metacognitive control develops, persists into adulthood and scales through professional socialization, it could supply the missing microfoundation for institutional persistence. I propose Heteronomous Bayesian Updating (HBU) as a formalization of this scaling mechanism and organize its institutional effects through a multilevel game-theoretic typology. The framework generates falsable predictions that I test illustratively against the Constitutional Lock-in Index (CLI) developed in prior work. Argentina's Article 14bis, with a CLI of 0.87 and 0/23 successful reform attempts between 1991 and 2025, serves as the primary case. The core claim is theoretical: legal institutions calcify not because of conspiracy or path dependence alone, but because the human cognitive apparatus for evaluating evidence is systematically distorted by group affiliation, and legal professions constitute precisely the kind of identity-conferring groups that trigger this distortion.

Keywords

group membership bias, institutional persistence, extended phenotype theory, Bayesian updating, constitutional lock-in, legal reform, cognitive development, evidentiary standards

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!