
Background: Traditional philosophy of science assumes that scientific conclusions are logically derived from argumentation. If true, substantial changes in argumentative structure should lead to corresponding changes in conclusions. The Paradox: We observe that peer review often demands drastic argumentation restructuring, yet conclusions remain remarkably stable—a phenomenon we term the "Paradox of Revision." Theoretical Prediction: If conclusions originate from pre-linguistic insights ($R$) rather than post-hoc argumentation ($M$), then exogenous variation in $M$ (via peer review) should not affect conclusion stability ($Y$)—formally: $M \not\to Y$. Methods: We analyzed 500 neuroscience articles from eLife Reviewed Preprints (randomly sampled from a pre-processed pool of N=2,966 articles across 18 disciplines). Using AI-based coding (DeepSeek-chat, temperature=0), we classified: (1) whether peer review targeted argumentation (Z); (2) magnitude of argumentation change (M: minor/moderate/substantial); (3) conclusion stability (Y: identical/paraphrased/qualified/changed). Results: Among 480 articles with argumentation-targeting reviews (96%), conclusion stability was near-universal (99.8%: 479/480 stable). Critically, even among 12 cases with substantial argumentation restructuring (>30% change), zero exhibited changed conclusions (0/12 = 0%). The single changed case involved a genuine scope expansion, validating coding sensitivity. Conclusion: The near-complete absence of M→Y effects—stronger than theoretically anticipated—supports the claim that scientific argumentation serves to *anchor* pre-existing insights rather than *generate* conclusions. This has implications for understanding scientific justification, peer review efficacy, and the ontology of discovery vs. justification. Next Steps: We are scaling this protocol to multiple disciplines (pre-processed pool: 2,966 articles) to enable instrumental variable regression analysis (IV-2SLS) for causal identification. This brief report establishes priority for the research design and pilot findings.
argumentation, philosophy of science, semantic posteriority,, peer review, causal inference
argumentation, philosophy of science, semantic posteriority,, peer review, causal inference
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