Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ZENODOarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 2 versions
addClaim

The Bottleneck Primitive: Statistics as the Study of Information Compression

Authors: Close, Larsen James;

The Bottleneck Primitive: Statistics as the Study of Information Compression

Abstract

Every statistical operation is a projection through an information bottleneck, and every statistical result is jointly a property of the data and the bottleneck's geometry. This paper argues that the classical "paradoxes" of statistics — Simpson's paradox, the base rate fallacy, regression to the mean, the misinterpretation of p-values — are all instances of a single error: confusing a property of the compression for a property of the world. The same bottleneck/world confusion is shown to operate in adversarial attacks on AI safety classifiers (where attackers characterize and exploit the defender's projection geometry) and in institutional risk assessment (analyzed through Anthropic's Sabotage Risk Report for Claude Opus 4.6). The contribution is not the information bottleneck concept itself, which has formal precedent in Tishby et al. (2000), but the claim that it constitutes the generative grammar of inferential epistemics — and that recognizing this reveals the analyst's cognitive topology as legibly as it reveals properties of the data.

Keywords

Simpson's paradox, information compression, base rate fallacy, statistical epistemology, institutional epistemics, projection geometry, AI safety, information bottleneck, philosophy of statistics, adversarial machine learning

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average