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Part of book or chapter of book . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Part of book or chapter of book . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Part of book or chapter of book . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Horizon Effects in Structural Equity Valuation: From SIRR (Six Months) to SIRRIPA (Two Years) — A Comparative Statistical Analysis of Predictive Power Relative to the P/E Ratio in U.S. Technology Stocks

Authors: Sam, Rainsy;

Horizon Effects in Structural Equity Valuation: From SIRR (Six Months) to SIRRIPA (Two Years) — A Comparative Statistical Analysis of Predictive Power Relative to the P/E Ratio in U.S. Technology Stocks

Abstract

This article synthesizes and extends two recent empirical studies on the predictive capacity of the PPP-derived return framework applied to U.S. technology stocks. The first study examined a six-month horizon (August 2025–February 2026) and found that the Stock Internal Rate of Return (SIRR) explained approximately 20% of cross-sectional return variation. The second study extended the horizon to two years (February 2024–February 2026) and showed that the more comprehensive Stock Internal Rate of Return Including Price Appreciation (SIRRIPA) explained between 39% and 55% of realized performance dispersion. The present article compares these two analyses within a unified statistical framework and contrasts them with the traditional P/E ratio, whose predictive capacity remains statistically insignificant across both horizons. Using Pearson correlation, OLS regression, Spearman rank tests, quintile spreads, and formal null-hypothesis testing, we demonstrate that predictive strength increases materially with time within the return-space framework, while price-space multiples, as represented by the P/E ratio, fail to exhibit comparable converge in explanatory power. The findings support the structural superiority of PPP-derived return metrics over static valuation ratios.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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