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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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ALBA — Ancient Legacy Bayesian Assessment: A Bayesian Search for a Pre-Younger Dryas Non-Industrial Civilisation. From Hypothesis to Candidate Site.

Authors: Sivan, Julien; Legat, Valérie;

ALBA — Ancient Legacy Bayesian Assessment: A Bayesian Search for a Pre-Younger Dryas Non-Industrial Civilisation. From Hypothesis to Candidate Site.

Abstract

This paper presents the ALBA Project (Ancient Legacy Bayesian Assessment), which identifies a candidate archaeological site at P5 (7.550°N, 117.750°E, Sulu Sea) matching Plato's description of Atlantis across ten independent quantitative parameters, through a systematic four-stage Bayesian investigation. Stage 1 evaluates geological, archaeological, and acoustic evidence for a technologically sophisticated yet non-industrial civilisation prior to the Younger Dryas cosmic impact (~12,800 BP), designated hypothesis H₃, raising its posterior probability to 45–62%. Stage 2 identifies a recurrent technological fingerprint — golden-ratio (Φ) geometric placement, proximity to geological faults, use of piezoelectric/electromagnetic materials, and association with mercury deposits — and deploys it as a predictive search tool. A global Φ-scan isolates P5. Stage 3 validates P5 against independent evidence lines: philological analysis of Plato and Herodotus, Egyptian directional inversion, GEBCO/GMRT bathymetric matching (RMSE = 6.2 m for the concentric ring system 2.5:1:2:2:3:3 stades), myth-bathymetry correlation (Nunn method), population genetics (Sama-Bajau), and the diasporic triangle. Stage 4 subjects the Φ-signal to a Monte Carlo self-audit — retracting initial Bayes Factors from 200–500 to 10–25 and uncovering a hub anomaly at z = 4.98 — then examines convergent signals including the Nazca Convergence (p = 0.00017) and archaeoastronomical analysis of Betelgeuse mythology across five continents. P5 satisfies 17/20 criteria. Final posteriors: P(H₃) = 90–96%; P(P5) = 88–95%. Three criteria require direct underwater investigation at −19 m depth. Preprint — not peer-reviewed. The authors assume full responsibility for the content. Comments, critiques, and proposals for collaboration are welcome.

Keywords

FOS: History and archaeology, Sundaland, non-industrial civilisation, Earth and related environmental sciences, Younger Dryas impact, Atlantis, myth-bathymetry correlation, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, paleogeography, History and archaeology, Bayesian hypothesis testing, Underwater archaeology, phi-ratio analysis, Nazca geodesics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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