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Report . 2024
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Report . 2024
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Datacite
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A Software Tool for Applying Bayes' Theorem in Medical Diagnostics

Technical Report XXVII
Authors: Chatzimichail, Theodora; Hatjimihail, Aristides;

A Software Tool for Applying Bayes' Theorem in Medical Diagnostics

Abstract

Background: In medical diagnostics, estimating post-test or posterior probabilities for disease, positive and negative predictive values, and their associated uncertainty is essential for patient care. Objective: To introduce a software tool developed in the Wolfram Language for the parametric estimation, visualization, and comparison of Bayesian diagnostic measures and their uncertainty. Methods: The tool employs Bayes' theorem to estimate positive and negative predictive values and posterior probabilities for the presence and absence of a disease. It estimates their standard sampling, measurement, and combined uncertainty, as well as their confidence intervals, applying uncertainty propagation methods based on first-order Taylor series approximations. It employs normal, lognormal, and gamma distributions. Results: The software generates plots and tables of the estimates to support clinical decision-making. An illustrative case study using fasting plasma glucose data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) demonstrates its application in diagnosing diabetes mellitus. The results highlight the significant impact of measurement uncertainty on Bayesian diagnostic measures, particularly on positive predictive value and posterior probabilities. Conclusion: The software enhances the estimation and facilitates the comparison of Bayesian diagnostic measures, which are critical for medical practice. It provides a framework for their uncertainty quantification and assists in understanding and applying Bayes' theorem in medical diagnostics.

Keywords

Diagnosis, Uncertainty, Bayes Theorem

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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