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EpiNow2: Estimate and Forecast Real-Time Infection Dynamics

Authors: Abbott, Sam; Hellewell, Joel; Sherratt, Katharine; Gostic, Katelyn; Hickson, Joe; Badr, Hamada S.; DeWitt, Michael; +3 Authors

EpiNow2: Estimate and Forecast Real-Time Infection Dynamics

Abstract

Estimates the time-varying reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time using a renewal equation approach combined with Bayesian inference via Stan. Supports Gaussian process and random walk priors for modelling changes in transmission over time. Accounts for delays between infection and observation (incubation period, reporting delays), right-truncation in recent data, day-of-week effects, and observation overdispersion. Can estimate relationships between primary and secondary outcomes (e.g., cases to hospitalisations or deaths) and forecast both. Runs across multiple regions in parallel. Based on Abbott et al. (2020) and Gostic et al. (2020) .

To cite package "EpiNow2" in publications use:

Keywords

covid-19, backcalculation, gaussian-processes, reproduction-number, rstats, open-source, stan

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
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