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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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The N/N_e Distinction and the Recalibration of the Human-Chimpanzee Divergence

Authors: Day, Vox; Athos, Claude;

The N/N_e Distinction and the Recalibration of the Human-Chimpanzee Divergence

Abstract

Kimura’s (1968) derivation of the neutral substitution rate k = μ rests on the cancellation of population size N between mutation supply (2Nμ) and fixation probability (1/2N). This cancellation is invalid. The mutation supply term uses census N (every individual can mutate), while the fixation probability is governed by effective population size Ne (drift operates on Ne, not N). The corrected substitution rate is k = μ × (N/Ne). Using empirically derived Ne values—human Ne = 3,300 from ancient DNA drift variance (Day & Athos 2026a) and chimpanzee Ne = 33,000 from geographic drift variance across subspecies (this paper)—we recalibrate the human-chimpanzee divergence date. The consensus molecular clock estimate of 6–7 Mya collapses to 200–580 kya, with the most plausible demographic parameters yielding 200–360 kya. Both Ne estimates are independent of k = μ and independent of the molecular clock. The recalibrated divergence date increases the MITTENS fixation shortfall from ~130,000× to 4–8 million×, rendering the standard model of human-chimpanzee divergence via natural selection mathematically impossible by an additional two orders of magnitude.

Keywords

Kimura, evolution, molecular clock, CHLCA, N_e

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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