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Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Probabilistic Management of Uncertainty in Innovative Construction Projects

Authors: Urbano, Bertold; Orobio, Armando;

Probabilistic Management of Uncertainty in Innovative Construction Projects

Abstract

This extended conference abstract evaluates the limitations of traditional deterministic planning methods like CPM compared to probabilistic approaches for managing uncertainty in construction projects. Through a comparative analysis of a rural house built using conventional methods versus 3D printing technology, the study utilizes a three-phase methodology incorporating CPM scheduling and Monte Carlo simulations to model schedule risks. The results demonstrate that while 3D printing offers shorter estimated durations, it exhibits significantly higher variability due to its innovative nature, leading the authors to conclude that integrating probabilistic modeling provides a superior framework for anticipating deviations and managing the inherent uncertainty of emerging construction technologies. +4

Keywords

Project planning, Critical Path Method (CPM), Monte Carlo simulation, 3D printing.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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