
This report assesses the financial viability and bankability of the proposed MaambaEnergy Limited (Maamba) Phase 2 coal-fired power project in Zambia. Using the Model for Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans (FINPLAN), the analysis evaluates the project’s resilience under three key sensitivity variables: i. Construction period delaysii. Tariff fluctuations, andiii. Plant utilization rates.Key findings indicate that the project is financially viable under optimal conditions: a construction period of 3-4 years, a tariff of at least ZMW1.1/kWh, and a high plant utilization rate above 80%. However, the project exhibits significant sensitivity to adverse changes. Construction delays beyond 4 years severely erode Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). A 20% reduction in tariff cuts the NPV by over 50%, and the project becomes unprofitable (NPV<0) if the plant’s capacity factor falls below approximately 65%.Recommendations include the need for robust project management to mitigate construction delays, the establishment of a tariff structure that adequately covers costs and provides a risk-commensurate return and securing reliable offtake agreements to ensure high utilization. The government should frame this project as essential baseload capacity for national energy security and facilitate an enabling regulatory and logistical environment
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