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Preprint . 2026
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Preprint . 2026
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Simpson's Paradox Revisited: A Measure-Theoretic and Systemic Perspective

Authors: STUDENT, By;

Simpson's Paradox Revisited: A Measure-Theoretic and Systemic Perspective

Abstract

This work revisits Simpson’s paradox from a measure-theoretic and structural perspective, demonstrating that the apparent reversal of conditional probabilities arises not from statistical surprise but from comparing quantities defined on non-invariant probability spaces. Building on measure theory, aggregation operators, and the concept of moving probability spaces, the paper shows that Simpson-type reversals are mathematically inevitable whenever aggregation alters the underlying σ-algebra or measurable structure. The manuscript formalizes the general impossibility of preserving conditional probabilities across heterogeneous groups, clarifies the role of σ-algebra inclusion, and provides a unified explanation that complements—rather than contradicts—causal accounts such as Pearl’s. Classical examples are reconstructed using explicit probability spaces, and the broader phenomenon is connected to non-closure principles observed in economics, evaluation design, and systemic analysis. Overall, the paper reframes Simpson’s paradox as a structural inconsistency caused by measurable-space asymmetry, offering a rigorous foundation for understanding aggregation, heterogeneity, and the limits of statistical inference.

Keywords

Simpson's paradox, σ-algebras and measurability, Measure theory, Causal inference and structure, Non-closure phenomena, Moving probability spaces, Probability spaces, Systemic analysis of aggregation, Statistical heterogeneity, Aggregation operators

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green