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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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《全球深源大地震与18.6年月球交点潮关联性的统计检验》

《全球深源大地震与18.6年月球交点潮关联性的统计检验》

Abstract

深源地震(深度 ≥ 300 公里)的物理机制是地球动力学研究的前沿。除俯冲带内部过程外,长周期固体潮汐应力(如18.6年月球交点潮)能否系统性地调制其发生,是一个物理机制明确但存在观测争议的科学假说。为对该假说进行定量检验,本研究基于美国地质调查局(USGS)综合地震目录(1950–2024),系统筛选出矩震级(Mw) ≥ 7.0、震源深度 ≥ 300 公里的全球深源地震事件,共90个。通过构建年发生频次时间序列,并采用 Lomb‑Scargle 周期图谱分析与相位随机化显著性检验,我们在18.6年周期附近未检测到超出随机波动水平的显著谱峰(经验 p 值 > 0.2)。统计分析结果不支持“18.6年月球交点潮对全球深源大地震(Mw ≥ 7.0)活动存在简单、主导性调制作用”的假说。这一阴性结果为相关理论模型提供了关键的全球性观测约束,并提示未来的触发机制研究需考虑更复杂的调制模式。

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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