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Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Research . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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From Long-Form Media to Test Design: A Graph-Theoretic Method for Auditing Economic Narratives

From Podcast Narrative to Testable Commodity–Macro Hypotheses: A Replicable Argument-Mapping and Falsification Framework (Demonstration on Setting Course 2026, Episode 4)
Authors: Bell, Peter;

From Long-Form Media to Test Design: A Graph-Theoretic Method for Auditing Economic Narratives

Abstract

Long-form podcasts and video interviews have become influential venues for economic narratives, yet such artifacts are typically treated as anecdote: quoted selectively, summarized impressionistically, and left “uncodable” for evaluation. This paper presents a replicable pipeline that converts a public long-form transcript into (i) a bounded set of normalized claims, (ii) a directed acyclic graph (DAG) of asserted support relations, and (iii) a falsification-oriented measurement plan that maps key downstream claims to potential falsifiers and indicator families. The method is intentionally procedural rather than substantive: it does not endorse a narrative’s predictions; it makes the narrative auditable and empirically vulnerable by specifying what observations would count against it. The pipeline combines lightweight claim coding, graph construction with topological ordering, optional rhetorical edge weights (emphasis × specificity × modal commitment), Toulmin decomposition for key claims, and a “stock vs evolvability” measurement architecture to separate current tightness from adaptive capacity. The protocol generalizes to comparative narrative evaluation and longitudinal scorecards.

This paper introduces a source-agnostic pipeline for converting long-form podcasts, video interviews, or written narratives into auditable test designs. It extracts and normalizes key claims, maps their asserted support relations as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), identifies load-bearing premises and a “core spine” using simple graph diagnostics, and links high-centrality downstream claims to potential falsifiers and measurable indicator families. The method separates fast “stock” metrics (state/tightness) from slower “evolvability” metrics (adaptive capacity), and supports optional rhetorical edge weighting plus Toulmin decomposition for key claims. The contribution is procedural rather than substantive: a replicable protocol and artifact set that makes narratives transparent, contestable, and empirically vulnerable.

Keywords

economics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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