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Time-Series ICU Patient Deterioration Predictor

Authors: Yip, Simon;

Time-Series ICU Patient Deterioration Predictor

Abstract

This repository presents a dual-architecture machine learning system for early detection of clinical deterioration in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The system compares gradient-boosted decision trees (LightGBM) with temporal convolutional networks (TCN) to model complementary aspects of physiological risk using routinely collected clinical observations. Three NEWS2-derived deterioration outcomes are considered: maximum risk level attained during the ICU stay (max_risk), median sustained risk level across the stay (median_risk), and the proportion of time spent in a high-risk state (pct_time_high). Models are trained and evaluated using the PhysioNet MIMIC-IV Clinical Demo v2.2 dataset via two distinct feature-engineering pipelines. The TCN operates on high-resolution timestamp-level temporal features (96-hour windows, 171 features) to capture short-term physiological instability, while the LightGBM model uses patient-level aggregated tabular features (40 features) to characterise longer-term exposure to risk. Comparative evaluation indicates complementary performance profiles: LightGBM exhibits superior calibration and regression fidelity for sustained risk estimation, while TCNs show stronger sensitivity and discrimination for acute deterioration events. Performance is assessed using ROC-AUC, Brier score, and R², alongside interpretability analyses based on SHAP values and saliency methods. The end-to-end pipeline includes clinically validated NEWS2 preprocessing (including CO₂ retainer logic, Glasgow Coma Scale mapping, and supplemental oxygen protocols), comprehensive feature engineering, model training with hyperparameter optimisation, robust metric evaluation, and a command-line inference interface supporting batch prediction and per-patient lookup. Overall, the system demonstrates physiologically plausible predictive behaviour, clinically meaningful interpretability, and a reproducible workflow suitable for extension to full clinical datasets or downstream deployment contexts. This repository contains code and documentation only; no patient-level clinical data are redistributed. Users must obtain the MIMIC-IV dataset directly from PhysioNet and comply with its data use requirements. The work is intended for research and educational use. Target Outcome Best-Performing Model Key Metric(s) Notes max_risk TCN ROC-AUC = 0.923; Strong acute deterioration detection median_risk LightGBM ROC-AUC = 0.872; Brier Score = 0.065 Superior sustained risk calibration pct_time_high LightGBM R² = 0.793; RMSE = 0.038 Higher fidelity estimation of high-risk exposure

Keywords

Critical Care, MIMIC-IV, Clinical Prediction, Patient Deterioration, Temporal Convolutional Network, Neural Network, Health Informatics, LightGBM, NEWS2 Score, Machine Learning, Early Warning Score, Artificial Intelligence, ICU, Time Series Analysis

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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